Serie A · resolved market
SSC Napoli vs. Parma Calcio 1913: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb6828988eeb2477e06c6162b1c27d936b6bceba3ac162557bf579a368a0e4b7a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,811
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,875
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,811 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 15c | 8,504$1,304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,303.82 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5f…4b52backed Under | 77c | 7,899$6,082 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,816.78 | 20 | 90%18 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 77cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Under | 77c | 2,741$2,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630.46 | 26 | 88.5%23 W · 3 L | +3.8wins | +0.15per pick | 74cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 28c | 1,500$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 366 | 30.9%113 W · 253 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 28c | 893$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.04 | 96 | 27.1%26 W · 70 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Under | 79c | 632.91$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.91 | 74 | 64.9%48 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over | 29c | 595.64$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.42 | 98 | 26.5%26 W · 72 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Over | 31c | 483.87$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 131 | 37.4%49 W · 82 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 29c | 422.87$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 985 | 44.9%442 W · 543 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over | 24c | 286.04$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.64 | 111 | 44.1%49 W · 62 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4138…6a24backed Under | 73c | 219.91$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.38 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf6…773bbacked Over | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 23c | 158.18$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.38 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c3…7d73backed Under | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 44c | 129$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.92 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 70c | 127.61$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.28 | 331 | 44.7%148 W · 183 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Over | 18c | 121.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…d4debacked Over | 29c | 112.62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 216 | 50.5%109 W · 107 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbac…435fbacked Under | 70c | 107.14$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.14 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 29c | 104$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 372 | 50.5%188 W · 184 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Over | 23c | 103.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed Over | 17c | 92.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e6…71e4backed Under | 69c | 81$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.11 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1c…dc02backed Over | 14c | 76.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 29c | 76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d14…1eb4backed Under | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 142 | 31%44 W · 98 L | -10.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 68c | 62.5$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 233 | 53.6%125 W · 108 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 28c | 55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fdc3backed Over | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d9…a94bbacked Under | 69c | 43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 44c | 37.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 114 | 60.5%69 W · 45 L | +14.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Under | 73c | 33.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 55c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 467 | 42.8%200 W · 267 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…0404backed Under | 73c | 17.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c54…7e41backed Under | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SSC Napoli vs. Parma Calcio 1913: O/U 3.5this page
- SSC Napoli vs. Parma Calcio 1913: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SSC Napoli vs. Parma Calcio 1913: O/U 1.5Under won
- SSC Napoli vs. Parma Calcio 1913: O/U 2.5Under won
- SSC Napoli vs. Parma Calcio 1913: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.