Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb683b6d47b6d25b9f960176ee12a2f932625c863c980f535e79abc1a65b4e773
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,792
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,887
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,792 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 4c | 325.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 5c | 248.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf677…2efebacked Yes | 76c | 239.87$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.36 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -7.3wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa61f…fa82backed No | 5c | 229.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 54 | 5.6%3 W · 51 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 19c | 218.09$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.45 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 35c | 199.21$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.89 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 175.06$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.85 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…9bb2backed Yes | 37c | 174.89$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.43 | 166 | 42.8%71 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 36c | 158.15$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.45 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 68c | 157.21$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.57 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 18c | 146.44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 30c | 127.3$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.22 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 64c | 125.19$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 69c | 124.5$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.33 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 124.16$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.07 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 19c | 106.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.59 | 183 | 33.3%61 W · 122 L | -17.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 64c | 84.45$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.05 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 56c | 70.97$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 80c | 70.32$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0c…c6adbacked No | 28c | 67.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 65c | 60.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.59 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 66c | 55.37$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.35 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed Yes | 37c | 54.93$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.39 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 36c | 48.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.32 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 34c | 46.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 35c | 46.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.32 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 44.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes | 64c | 41.56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | +28.7wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 37c | 39.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.04 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 53c | 37.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 65c | 33.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 65c | 33.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 33.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 61c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 32c | 31.35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 69c | 30.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 29.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 54c | 29.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe5…91aabacked No | 58c | 26.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x074e…b9d1backed Yes | 40c | 25.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 72c | 23.84$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 66c | 22.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 67c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 65c | 20.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 69c | 16.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 154 | 66.9%103 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad1…e9acbacked No | 72c | 14.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 69cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on July 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 41°C or higher on July 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.