Movies · resolved market
Will "Ella McCay" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 2.5m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb6853ad10fac67358d8ce2656f99e9d249fdbbdd39760dc09f57457f76b691f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,908
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,380
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,908 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5095…93eebacked No | 0c | 38,800$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 54c | 1,211$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.26 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 48c | 606.38$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.6 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed Yes | 73c | 481.33$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.58 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…f6a3backed No | 35c | 348.9$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.94 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ef…be38backed No | 59c | 303$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.77 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 36c | 250$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 53c | 205$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.8 | 137 | 40.1%55 W · 82 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7f…1bd6backed No | 22c | 170$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.9 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 43c | 128.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.87 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 28c | 107.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.22 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8973…a37cbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.94 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | -6.8wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 65c | 91.83$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.14 | 135 | 34.8%47 W · 88 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 26c | 83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…9656backed No | 74c | 80$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 67c | 62.24$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.82 | 191 | 33%63 W · 128 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed No | 38c | 49.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 55c | 42.93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 40c | 40.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -14.8wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4df7…522dbacked No | 36c | 38.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed No | 37c | 32.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x086f…8bc3backed Yes | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x960a…7062backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Ella McCay" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 2.5m?this page
- Will "Ella McCay" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2.5m and 3m?No won
- Will "Ella McCay" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3m and 3.5m?No won
- Will "Ella McCay" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 3.5m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.