AI · resolved market
Will Apple announce an Apple Smart Home Display during the WWDC 2026 keynote?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb6c73ce30225be6e601ab2c6373635361f744a3f9a348f83672aa5d1f1388862
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,103
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,073
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,103 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f92…2c2dbacked No | 64c | 1,144$732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.66 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 28c | 300$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 54 | 20.4%11 W · 43 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 28c | 282.14$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 66c | 216.41$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.58 | 460 | 38.9%179 W · 281 L | -31.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 14c | 201$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 731 | 35.6%260 W · 471 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 28c | 179$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.92 | 288 | 26.7%77 W · 211 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 55c | 142.84$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.91 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | -10.6wins | -0.21per pick | 47cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…a963backed Yes | 48c | 59.76$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2712…eb71backed No | 76c | 52.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x582a…7bb2backed Yes | 26c | 39.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2697…ea98backed Yes | 36c | 39.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa20b…390bbacked Yes | 52c | 37.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 72c | 30.27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 109 | 38.5%42 W · 67 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4875…149bbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -10.8wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x30b8…fbf3backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e03…beaabacked Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe6…d94cbacked Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ca05backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -43%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 68c | 14.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | -20.8wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Apple announce an Apple Smart Home Display during the WWDC 2026 keynote?this page
- Will Apple announce a HomePod mini successor during the WWDC 2026 keynote?No won
- Will Apple announce a foldable iPhone during the WWDC 2026 keynote?No won
- Will Apple announce a new product line during the WWDC 2026 keynote?No won
- Will Apple announce a standalone Siri app during the WWDC 2026 keynote?Yes won
- Will Apple announce a touchscreen MacBook during the WWDC 2026 keynote?No won
- Will Apple announce all six next-generation operating systems during the WWDC 2026 keynote?Yes won
- Will Apple announce an AI-charged Siri during the WWDC 2026 keynote?Yes won
- Will Apple announce the iPhone 18 during the WWDC 2026 keynote?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.