AI · resolved market
Will Apple announce a standalone Siri app during the WWDC 2026 keynote?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3c6f81a1473f1dcbc65504f48054f0e2f49dc794fecc2971e07dca4b6af4bf1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,883
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,488
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,883 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4fec…135dbacked Yes | 74c | 793.96$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…2c2dbacked No | 32c | 408.54$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.21 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 40c | 400$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 37c | 281.12$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.1 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | -20.8wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 25c | 250$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 62 | 16.1%10 W · 52 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 12c | 224.58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 55c | 199.98$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.98 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb48…be6dbacked No | 26c | 185.5$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.23 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x285e…3cfcbacked Yes | 71c | 147.09$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2712…eb71backed No | 38c | 130.68$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.25 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 53c | 120$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e5…9749backed Yes | 57c | 100.17$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.99 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 26c | 65.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a0…eabdbacked Yes | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac7a…414fbacked Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…37e6backed Yes | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2594…bacdbacked Yes | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d91…f592backed No | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 34c | 39.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 288 | 26.7%77 W · 211 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 30c | 38.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e35…bff7backed Yes | 70c | 30.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -18%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x380d…1105backed Yes | 66c | 30.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 63c | 29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed3a…3047backed Yes | 69c | 28.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2697…ea98backed Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 71c | 18.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Apple announce a standalone Siri app during the WWDC 2026 keynote?this page
- Will Apple announce a HomePod mini successor during the WWDC 2026 keynote?No won
- Will Apple announce a foldable iPhone during the WWDC 2026 keynote?No won
- Will Apple announce a new product line during the WWDC 2026 keynote?No won
- Will Apple announce a touchscreen MacBook during the WWDC 2026 keynote?No won
- Will Apple announce all six next-generation operating systems during the WWDC 2026 keynote?Yes won
- Will Apple announce an AI-charged Siri during the WWDC 2026 keynote?Yes won
- Will Apple announce an Apple Smart Home Display during the WWDC 2026 keynote?No won
- Will Apple announce the iPhone 18 during the WWDC 2026 keynote?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.