TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Aurora vs MOUZ (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Auroraof Aurora, MOUZ
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$248,578

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $248,578 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 278 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa5ea…d96abacked MOUZ49c56,434$27,524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,523.8628748.8%140 W · 147 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9b5…09eebacked Aurora51c39,908$20,353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,555.2955157%314 W · 237 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x15a6…bf5dbacked Aurora50c20,000$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,999.971258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+20.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked MOUZ37c15,629$5,751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,750.62,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66fb…9f72backed Aurora61c13,524$8,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,253.1954556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6304…e570backed MOUZ49c12,052$5,942 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,942.0127645.3%125 W · 151 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked MOUZ46c10,271$4,739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,739.3460542.6%258 W · 347 L-14.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc81…5df2backed Aurora51c10,000$5,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,900.289557.9%55 W · 40 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked Aurora50c9,000$4,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,5008258.5%48 W · 34 L+5.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked MOUZ28c6,670$1,876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,875.643336.4%12 W · 21 L-3.9wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-32.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Aurora53c6,000$3,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,82018452.2%96 W · 88 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x40f8…327dbacked MOUZ21c5,496$1,178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,178.0411839.8%47 W · 71 L-7.5wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x098b…1fa5backed MOUZ50c5,000$2,487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,487.48922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick43cpaid-49.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked MOUZ37c4,872$1,822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,821.771,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed Aurora51c4,592$2,342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,250.142650%213 W · 213 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb517…434bbacked Aurora51c4,536$2,329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,207.3122842.1%96 W · 132 L-25.3wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-23.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x38b0…060cbacked MOUZ48c4,331$2,079 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0791735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked MOUZ38c4,160$1,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,589.541,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked MOUZ49c4,000$1,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9609839.8%39 W · 59 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3542…c3c8backed MOUZ48c3,483$1,671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,670.543455.9%19 W · 15 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x506b…3f70backed MOUZ25c3,058$779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$779.46145.9%28 W · 33 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked MOUZ50c3,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50034544.3%153 W · 192 L-15.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed Aurora51c3,000$1,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,47064744.4%287 W · 360 L+13.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8adc…bafcbacked Aurora52c2,600$1,352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2482259.1%13 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked MOUZ48c2,260$1,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,084.794443.2%19 W · 25 L+4.2wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+23.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2698…0958backed MOUZ49c2,000$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98013441.8%56 W · 78 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-17.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd3fa…a26cbacked Aurora51c2,000$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$980.11566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+29.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe749…f660backed Aurora51c1,987$1,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$973.63666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed MOUZ43c1,828$792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$791.761,11336.2%403 W · 710 L-37.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-31%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d40…2230backed Aurora66c1,753$1,163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$590.051735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-29.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x90a1…73d6backed MOUZ44c1,740$762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$761.812751.9%14 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8dd1…5a9bbacked Aurora60c1,661$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$661.2620367%136 W · 67 L+14.8wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+11.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x65ce…b90bbacked MOUZ21c1,633$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.825740.4%23 W · 34 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8120…54c9backed Aurora52c1,625$845 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7807941.8%33 W · 46 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b59…0ba0backed Aurora54c1,617$879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$737.8827637.3%103 W · 173 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50ac…a924backed Aurora52c1,615$840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$775.389555.8%53 W · 42 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+22.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed MOUZ38c1,613$614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6142,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x24eb…75eebacked Aurora52c1,537$799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$737.735251.9%27 W · 25 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8cb…8f46backed MOUZ50c1,500$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7504143.9%18 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed MOUZ48c1,500$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72081029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Aurora52c1,400$728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67266662.2%414 W · 252 L+60.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x10d4…d953backed MOUZ50c1,400$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.91435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-25.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x57ba…d369backed Aurora73c1,370$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.8614648.6%71 W · 75 L-8.7wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-14%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked MOUZ44c1,366$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$594.537639.5%30 W · 46 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x060c…7d36backed Aurora78c1,339$1,045 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.59475%3 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick73cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b89…1069backed Aurora74c1,302$969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.6415653.8%84 W · 72 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed Aurora69c1,239$854 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.5313455.2%74 W · 60 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd055…28d0backed Aurora53c1,066$566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.826351%134 W · 129 L+13.4wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed MOUZ40c1,066$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.371,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5623…6930backed MOUZ49c999.99$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4902646.2%12 W · 14 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+21.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0828…5cfebacked Aurora52c989.46$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$474.9416550.9%84 W · 81 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb64…bfdcbacked Aurora51c985.59$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481.8423653%125 W · 111 L+12.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe2bb…ea55backed Aurora52c902.58$469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.245356.6%30 W · 23 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c64…89babacked MOUZ43c900$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.6318745.5%85 W · 102 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x588d…3f41backed Aurora73c875.34$639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.3428544.9%128 W · 157 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x17cd…7423backed Aurora50c864.07$436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.3711847.5%56 W · 62 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+16.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2757…55f0backed Aurora73c795$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.6512454.8%68 W · 56 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed MOUZ33c737.48$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.7119242.7%82 W · 110 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-20%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Aurora52c728.89$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.2722945.9%105 W · 124 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed MOUZ48c705.3$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.255244.2%23 W · 29 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e38…de0fbacked MOUZ39c700$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2736043.3%26 W · 34 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-14.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8581…e74dbacked Aurora50c678.6$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.31136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.18per pick54cpaid-38.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x13a7…0caebacked Aurora51c671.18$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.88757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked MOUZ38c667$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.0430138.9%117 W · 184 L-20.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-32.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed MOUZ36c643.72$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.881,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b5f…3397backed MOUZ47c638.51$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30023746.8%111 W · 126 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Aurora50c603.42$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.7189440.3%360 W · 534 L+1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed10…5e7abacked Aurora51c585.53$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.111833.3%6 W · 12 L-3.2wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-42.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8c16…4b37backed Aurora52c565.12$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.087149.3%35 W · 36 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6df…1cf4backed Aurora50c520$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2601346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+17.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4a9…3d6fbacked Aurora72c514.97$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.199145.1%41 W · 50 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf11e…3bc1backed Aurora50c510.99$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.5810741.1%44 W · 63 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8052…1124backed Aurora51c500.49$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.4917146.8%80 W · 91 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb28…02bbbacked Aurora50c500$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2519352.7%49 W · 44 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed MOUZ49c500$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2452352.2%12 W · 11 L+2.2wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+24.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed MOUZ35c467.22$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.3437632.2%121 W · 255 L-13.5wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-36.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e3a…780cbacked MOUZ20c465.08$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.025839.7%23 W · 35 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked Aurora75c458.13$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.8860646.9%284 W · 322 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed8f…5aa7backed Aurora53c457.26$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.916650%33 W · 33 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked MOUZ27c453.4$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.311,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xba0d…9a6ebacked Aurora53c430$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.12556%14 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Aurora51c411.95$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.954055%22 W · 18 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a97…66f5backed MOUZ50c400.2$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2009959.6%59 W · 40 L+6.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+12.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1cb5…6be6backed MOUZ29c400$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.825039.6%99 W · 151 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked MOUZ49c399.98$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.9921045.7%96 W · 114 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x209e…8bb4backed Aurora51c391$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.1280544.6%359 W · 446 L-25.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2639…a9b6backed Aurora52c382.85$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.7715549%76 W · 79 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7447…91ecbacked Aurora67c381.98$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.56055%33 W · 27 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f4f…46c2backed MOUZ33c377$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.4136054.4%196 W · 164 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x540d…c8f9backed Aurora54c370.17$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.2838855.2%214 W · 174 L+29.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1b12…5f8fbacked Aurora51c367.63$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.1429548.5%143 W · 152 L+0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe9e…7505backed MOUZ20c338.33$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29d3…b2edbacked Aurora52c331.56$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.5614259.9%85 W · 57 L+7.2wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x13c7…11d9backed MOUZ48c329.97$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.3933541.2%138 W · 197 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x974a…98c3backed Aurora52c323$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.043542.9%15 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-15.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed MOUZ50c320.15$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.889156%51 W · 40 L+6.7wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+22.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8eb1…4ed2backed Aurora51c306.1$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.17850%4 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x80ed…1506backed MOUZ27c293.15$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.131233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-29.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fa7…2bb4backed MOUZ50c292.97$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.27850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab9f…75f1backed MOUZ36c289.95$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.895735.1%20 W · 37 L-5.0wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-38.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.