Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs MOUZ (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb6d4d40fd7e252d136bbc90666f9347ea8b971dcd8ca82b3144b52e45f5603d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Aurora, MOUZ
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $248,578
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $248,578 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 278 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa5ea…d96abacked MOUZ | 49c | 56,434$27,524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,523.86 | 287 | 48.8%140 W · 147 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked Aurora | 51c | 39,908$20,353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,555.29 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15a6…bf5dbacked Aurora | 50c | 20,000$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,999.97 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked MOUZ | 37c | 15,629$5,751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,750.6 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66fb…9f72backed Aurora | 61c | 13,524$8,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,253.19 | 545 | 56.5%308 W · 237 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6304…e570backed MOUZ | 49c | 12,052$5,942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,942.01 | 276 | 45.3%125 W · 151 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked MOUZ | 46c | 10,271$4,739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,739.34 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…5df2backed Aurora | 51c | 10,000$5,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,900.28 | 95 | 57.9%55 W · 40 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked Aurora | 50c | 9,000$4,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,500 | 82 | 58.5%48 W · 34 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf988…d63bbacked MOUZ | 28c | 6,670$1,876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,875.64 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd09…a188backed Aurora | 53c | 6,000$3,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,820 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40f8…327dbacked MOUZ | 21c | 5,496$1,178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,178.04 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x098b…1fa5backed MOUZ | 50c | 5,000$2,487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,487.48 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked MOUZ | 37c | 4,872$1,822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,821.77 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3833…33d1backed Aurora | 51c | 4,592$2,342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,250.1 | 426 | 50%213 W · 213 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb517…434bbacked Aurora | 51c | 4,536$2,329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,207.31 | 228 | 42.1%96 W · 132 L | -25.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x38b0…060cbacked MOUZ | 48c | 4,331$2,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,079 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked MOUZ | 38c | 4,160$1,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,589.54 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67b6…00bcbacked MOUZ | 49c | 4,000$1,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,960 | 98 | 39.8%39 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3542…c3c8backed MOUZ | 48c | 3,483$1,671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,670.54 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x506b…3f70backed MOUZ | 25c | 3,058$779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$779.4 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked MOUZ | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 345 | 44.3%153 W · 192 L | -15.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7951…bb41backed Aurora | 51c | 3,000$1,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,470 | 647 | 44.4%287 W · 360 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…bafcbacked Aurora | 52c | 2,600$1,352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,248 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked MOUZ | 48c | 2,260$1,085 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,084.79 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…0958backed MOUZ | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980 | 134 | 41.8%56 W · 78 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fa…a26cbacked Aurora | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980.1 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe749…f660backed Aurora | 51c | 1,987$1,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$973.63 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed MOUZ | 43c | 1,828$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$791.76 | 1,113 | 36.2%403 W · 710 L | -37.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -31%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d40…2230backed Aurora | 66c | 1,753$1,163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.05 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90a1…73d6backed MOUZ | 44c | 1,740$762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$761.81 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd1…5a9bbacked Aurora | 60c | 1,661$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.26 | 203 | 67%136 W · 67 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…b90bbacked MOUZ | 21c | 1,633$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.82 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8120…54c9backed Aurora | 52c | 1,625$845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780 | 79 | 41.8%33 W · 46 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b59…0ba0backed Aurora | 54c | 1,617$879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.88 | 276 | 37.3%103 W · 173 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50ac…a924backed Aurora | 52c | 1,615$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$775.38 | 95 | 55.8%53 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed MOUZ | 38c | 1,613$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24eb…75eebacked Aurora | 52c | 1,537$799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.73 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8cb…8f46backed MOUZ | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed MOUZ | 48c | 1,500$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 810 | 29.4%238 W · 572 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Aurora | 52c | 1,400$728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…d953backed MOUZ | 50c | 1,400$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.9 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ba…d369backed Aurora | 73c | 1,370$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.86 | 146 | 48.6%71 W · 75 L | -8.7wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked MOUZ | 44c | 1,366$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.53 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x060c…7d36backed Aurora | 78c | 1,339$1,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.59 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b89…1069backed Aurora | 74c | 1,302$969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.64 | 156 | 53.8%84 W · 72 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Aurora | 69c | 1,239$854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.53 | 134 | 55.2%74 W · 60 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd055…28d0backed Aurora | 53c | 1,066$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.8 | 263 | 51%134 W · 129 L | +13.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed MOUZ | 40c | 1,066$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.37 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5623…6930backed MOUZ | 49c | 999.99$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0828…5cfebacked Aurora | 52c | 989.46$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.94 | 165 | 50.9%84 W · 81 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb64…bfdcbacked Aurora | 51c | 985.59$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.84 | 236 | 53%125 W · 111 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Aurora | 52c | 902.58$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.24 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…89babacked MOUZ | 43c | 900$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.63 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…3f41backed Aurora | 73c | 875.34$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.34 | 285 | 44.9%128 W · 157 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17cd…7423backed Aurora | 50c | 864.07$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.37 | 118 | 47.5%56 W · 62 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2757…55f0backed Aurora | 73c | 795$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.65 | 124 | 54.8%68 W · 56 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed MOUZ | 33c | 737.48$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.71 | 192 | 42.7%82 W · 110 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Aurora | 52c | 728.89$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.27 | 229 | 45.9%105 W · 124 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed MOUZ | 48c | 705.3$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.25 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e38…de0fbacked MOUZ | 39c | 700$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8581…e74dbacked Aurora | 50c | 678.6$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.3 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13a7…0caebacked Aurora | 51c | 671.18$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.88 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked MOUZ | 38c | 667$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.04 | 301 | 38.9%117 W · 184 L | -20.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed MOUZ | 36c | 643.72$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.88 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5f…3397backed MOUZ | 47c | 638.51$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 237 | 46.8%111 W · 126 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Aurora | 50c | 603.42$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.71 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…5e7abacked Aurora | 51c | 585.53$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.11 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Aurora | 52c | 565.12$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.08 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6df…1cf4backed Aurora | 50c | 520$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a9…3d6fbacked Aurora | 72c | 514.97$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.19 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf11e…3bc1backed Aurora | 50c | 510.99$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.58 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8052…1124backed Aurora | 51c | 500.49$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.49 | 171 | 46.8%80 W · 91 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb28…02bbbacked Aurora | 50c | 500$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed MOUZ | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed MOUZ | 35c | 467.22$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.34 | 376 | 32.2%121 W · 255 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3a…780cbacked MOUZ | 20c | 465.08$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.02 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacf6…41fcbacked Aurora | 75c | 458.13$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.88 | 606 | 46.9%284 W · 322 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed8f…5aa7backed Aurora | 53c | 457.26$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.91 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked MOUZ | 27c | 453.4$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.31 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba0d…9a6ebacked Aurora | 53c | 430$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.1 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Aurora | 51c | 411.95$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.95 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a97…66f5backed MOUZ | 50c | 400.2$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb5…6be6backed MOUZ | 29c | 400$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.8 | 250 | 39.6%99 W · 151 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…d74bbacked MOUZ | 49c | 399.98$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.99 | 210 | 45.7%96 W · 114 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Aurora | 51c | 391$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.12 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2639…a9b6backed Aurora | 52c | 382.85$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.77 | 155 | 49%76 W · 79 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…91ecbacked Aurora | 67c | 381.98$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.5 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…46c2backed MOUZ | 33c | 377$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.41 | 360 | 54.4%196 W · 164 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x540d…c8f9backed Aurora | 54c | 370.17$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.28 | 388 | 55.2%214 W · 174 L | +29.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b12…5f8fbacked Aurora | 51c | 367.63$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.14 | 295 | 48.5%143 W · 152 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9e…7505backed MOUZ | 20c | 338.33$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29d3…b2edbacked Aurora | 52c | 331.56$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.56 | 142 | 59.9%85 W · 57 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13c7…11d9backed MOUZ | 48c | 329.97$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.39 | 335 | 41.2%138 W · 197 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x974a…98c3backed Aurora | 52c | 323$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.04 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed MOUZ | 50c | 320.15$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.88 | 91 | 56%51 W · 40 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb1…4ed2backed Aurora | 51c | 306.1$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.17 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80ed…1506backed MOUZ | 27c | 293.15$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.13 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa7…2bb4backed MOUZ | 50c | 292.97$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.27 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…75f1backed MOUZ | 36c | 289.95$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.89 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -5.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs MOUZ (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stagethis page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs MOUZ - Game 1 WinnerAurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs MOUZ - Game 2 WinnerAurora won
- Game Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5)Aurora won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 49.5 in Game 2?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.