Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Aurora vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1eb09318b336207c97b753d78666fa957d48fca9201e58a884f0ec32a1731621

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Auroraof Aurora, MOUZ
Resolved: Mar 7, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $123,999

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $123,999 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Dota2
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x66fb…9f72backed Aurora	60c	25,366$15,241 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10,124.52	545	56.5%308 W · 237 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked MOUZ	39c	8,037$3,099 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,098.89	2,012	44.2%889 W · 1,123 L	+36.6wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18bb…e5cdbacked MOUZ	25c	4,828$1,207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,206.95	130	20%26 W · 104 L	-6.3wins	-0.05per pick	25cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked MOUZ	48c	4,164$2,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,000.38	534	51.7%276 W · 258 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked MOUZ	41c	4,089$1,659 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,658.99	1,155	47.8%552 W · 603 L	+29.5wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed MOUZ	16c	3,166$505 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$505.27	714	54.5%389 W · 325 L	+55.6wins	+0.08per pick	47cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked MOUZ	22c	2,882$642 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$641.67	1,521	37.9%576 W · 945 L	-57.8wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked MOUZ	40c	2,756$1,098 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,097.68	1,821	45%820 W · 1,001 L	+33.5wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked MOUZ	39c	2,661$1,031 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,030.98	858	51.3%440 W · 418 L	+30.8wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x60d0…e05fbacked MOUZ	40c	2,000$800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$800	412	42.2%174 W · 238 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0cd9…2a08backed Aurora	75c	1,963$1,472 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$490.67	522	43.9%229 W · 293 L	+11.3wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb04b…e2d4backed MOUZ	42c	1,766$746 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$746.35	161	42.9%69 W · 92 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0f9…cf34backed MOUZ	41c	1,726$713 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$712.86	186	61.8%115 W · 71 L	-6.9wins	-0.04per pick	66cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ab4…96a5backed Aurora	56c	1,464$823 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$640.8	118	54.2%64 W · 54 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Aurora	72c	1,385$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$384.71	1,186	43.2%512 W · 674 L	+42.2wins	+0.04per pick	40cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed MOUZ	41c	1,296$528 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$528.08	1,577	43.9%692 W · 885 L	-10.4wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e38…de0fbacked MOUZ	37c	1,066$399 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$399.05	60	43.3%26 W · 34 L	-2.5wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9852…111abacked Aurora	58c	860.9$499 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$362.26	204	52.5%107 W · 97 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83a0…12cabacked Aurora	63c	793.37$503 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$290.68	47	57.4%27 W · 20 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	59cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c64…89babacked MOUZ	44c	783.98$345 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$344.61	187	45.5%85 W · 102 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a06…31d8backed Aurora	65c	769.77$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$269.77	416	55.3%230 W · 186 L	-6.5wins	-0.02per pick	57cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c90…cd7bbacked MOUZ	3c	768.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.37	19	5.3%1 W · 18 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-71%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed MOUZ	40c	688.11$272 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$271.91	2,828	43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L	-39.5wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1aaa…0c04backed MOUZ	26c	565.56$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148	203	50.7%103 W · 100 L	-3.8wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x395f…dcacbacked Aurora	59c	512.43$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$212.43	7	100%7 W · 0 L	+3.1wins	+0.44per pick	56cpaid	+83.7%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5d99…8c5cbacked MOUZ	40c	504.37$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	+1.1wins	+0.12per pick	55cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed MOUZ	30c	500$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	810	29.4%238 W · 572 L	-23.5wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked Aurora	74c	499.99$369 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$131	774	58.5%453 W · 321 L	+75.1wins	+0.10per pick	49cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfc3e…776bbacked MOUZ	24c	420.15$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.11	192	51.6%99 W · 93 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xccf5…42f2backed Aurora	60c	415.83$249 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$166.33	574	55.4%318 W · 256 L	+6.5wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed MOUZ	48c	413.11$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	1,137	42.3%481 W · 656 L	-27.5wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fe6…5d3fbacked MOUZ	27c	405.06$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.41	94	30.9%29 W · 65 L	-6.0wins	-0.06per pick	37cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked Aurora	75c	400$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100.38	920	56.4%519 W · 401 L	+78.3wins	+0.09per pick	48cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe6a4…4249backed Aurora	77c	393.46$303 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90.9	196	64.8%127 W · 69 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	65cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6450…9547backed MOUZ	26c	382.27$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	101	41.6%42 W · 59 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfadf…dda0backed MOUZ	31c	301.19$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.27	292	45.9%134 W · 158 L	-4.3wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed MOUZ	41c	300.61$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.76	745	49.3%367 W · 378 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdca4…1c68backed MOUZ	41c	250$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.5	641	49.9%320 W · 321 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Aurora	75c	249.33$188 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.45	336	45.5%153 W · 183 L	+4.2wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed MOUZ	11c	235.7$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.39	31	38.7%12 W · 19 L	+4.4wins	+0.14per pick	24cpaid	+30.7%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed MOUZ	42c	207$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.71	1,120	36.1%404 W · 716 L	-39.4wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed MOUZ	26c	199.99$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	656	25.6%168 W · 488 L	+14.7wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked MOUZ	42c	193.33$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.72	2,378	47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L	+15.8wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Aurora	55c	187.73$103 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$84.48	436	47.5%207 W · 229 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed MOUZ	41c	160$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.6	40	45%18 W · 22 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	+6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3938…c6cbbacked MOUZ	49c	123.27$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	27	44.4%12 W · 15 L	-3.0wins	-0.11per pick	56cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf3c5…4d7abacked Aurora	55c	109.56$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.56	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.9wins	+0.44per pick	56cpaid	+77.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e4d…1cb0backed Aurora	74c	103.24$77 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.48	576	54.5%314 W · 262 L	+29.2wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x77f2…eec6backed Aurora	79c	100.13$79 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.13	554	57.8%320 W · 234 L	+12.3wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe252…2071backed MOUZ	44c	100$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	171	49.7%85 W · 86 L	+6.7wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked MOUZ	49c	100$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	735	54.7%402 W · 333 L	-3.5wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	-2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xdf28…46adbacked MOUZ	29c	95.28$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.63	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	-1.8wins	-0.12per pick	39cpaid	-34%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc093…de0ebacked MOUZ	45c	94.89$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.7	34	38.2%13 W · 21 L	-3.3wins	-0.10per pick	48cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3c1e…9514backed MOUZ	39c	87.62$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.2	864	51.7%447 W · 417 L	+20.0wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29f8…ffa9backed MOUZ	23c	81.17$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.67	150	33.3%50 W · 100 L	-10.4wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x127a…3344backed MOUZ	39c	79.48$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.73	136	55.9%76 W · 60 L	+8.0wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd3ac…b988backed Aurora	80c	75$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.05	31	58.1%18 W · 13 L	-2.1wins	-0.07per pick	65cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a0c…3ccebacked MOUZ	22c	73.81$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.6	81	32.1%26 W · 55 L	-4.5wins	-0.06per pick	38cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked MOUZ	46c	70.91$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.51	702	36.6%257 W · 445 L	+4.8wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	0%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed MOUZ	25c	70$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.52	1,797	55.8%1,003 W · 794 L	+37.5wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x289e…5802backed MOUZ	36c	69.51$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.10per pick	47cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Aurora	74c	69.27$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.01	915	53.3%488 W · 427 L	+48.0wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1b41…2c02backed MOUZ	29c	68.97$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	726	37.5%272 W · 454 L	+3.4wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	-4%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Aurora	58c	67.76$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.29	154	50%77 W · 77 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8c29…afadbacked Aurora	54c	67.69$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.14	61	50.8%31 W · 30 L	-4.0wins	-0.06per pick	57cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdab8…1bc7backed MOUZ	46c	57.41$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.41	23	52.2%12 W · 11 L	+1.8wins	+0.08per pick	44cpaid	+17.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x01d4…33d8backed MOUZ	47c	55.91$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	117	57.3%67 W · 50 L	+4.0wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x133a…f9d1backed MOUZ	28c	55.78$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.5	136	36%49 W · 87 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72c2…5e74backed MOUZ	30c	50$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.9	793	43.6%346 W · 447 L	+38.4wins	+0.05per pick	39cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf672…c3c4backed MOUZ	42c	47.62$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-1.8wins	-0.23per pick	48cpaid	-53.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x910e…29bcbacked MOUZ	43c	46.74$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	51	47.1%24 W · 27 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc44f…af90backed MOUZ	41c	44$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.83	43	41.9%18 W · 25 L	-5.8wins	-0.14per pick	55cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8387…376cbacked MOUZ	33c	40$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.13	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-32%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc5a…bf71backed Aurora	72c	38.73$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.8	466	49.8%232 W · 234 L	+8.3wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked Aurora	72c	38.03$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.62	27	70.4%19 W · 8 L	+4.6wins	+0.17per pick	53cpaid	+22.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb3c5…f095backed Aurora	54c	37.04$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.04	606	60.7%368 W · 238 L	+8.9wins	+0.01per pick	59cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9120…ae70backed Aurora	57c	36.3$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.61	210	62.4%131 W · 79 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	62cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcf24…1208backed MOUZ	43c	35.81$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.4	45	40%18 W · 27 L	-5.2wins	-0.12per pick	52cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed MOUZ	42c	35.46$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	1,034	16.3%169 W · 865 L	-158.1wins	-0.15per pick	32cpaid	-51%equal weight	33-0.15 edge/pick
0xb38c…b2c9backed MOUZ	42c	35$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.7	118	41.5%49 W · 69 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf456…3855backed MOUZ	43c	34.88$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	173	37.6%65 W · 108 L	+5.1wins	+0.03per pick	35cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3fb9…a8b3backed Aurora	59c	33.9$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.9	595	56.6%337 W · 258 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4c0…23d8backed Aurora	59c	33.9$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.9	239	57.3%137 W · 102 L	+8.1wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x062e…9234backed MOUZ	44c	33.84$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	28	46.4%13 W · 15 L	-2.2wins	-0.08per pick	54cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c16…4b37backed Aurora	54c	30.75$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.14	71	49.3%35 W · 36 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Aurora	59c	29.48$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.16	1,272	45%572 W · 700 L	-40.5wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0fef…8513backed MOUZ	41c	29.27$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	21	33.3%7 W · 14 L	-2.8wins	-0.13per pick	46cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2eda…4498backed Aurora	73c	27.41$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.41	105	62.9%66 W · 39 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	63cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfaa…cd5fbacked Aurora	74c	27.2$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.2	73	65.8%48 W · 25 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	65cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf883…b8b4backed Aurora	74c	27.03$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.03	187	64.7%121 W · 66 L	+17.3wins	+0.09per pick	55cpaid	+15%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf2ae…0864backed Aurora	69c	22.21$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.85	266	61.7%164 W · 102 L	+5.5wins	+0.02per pick	60cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed Aurora	68c	21.01$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.79	134	55.2%74 W · 60 L	+7.4wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x10ad…827cbacked Aurora	57c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.6	311	43.4%135 W · 176 L	+7.8wins	+0.03per pick	41cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d8d…f40dbacked Aurora	78c	17.99$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.95	447	71.1%318 W · 129 L	+27.1wins	+0.06per pick	65cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Dota 2: Aurora vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winnerthis page
Dota 2: Aurora vs MOUZ (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group StageAurora won
Dota 2: Aurora vs MOUZ - Game 2 WinnerAurora won
Game Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5)Aurora won
Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Total Kills Over/Under 49.5 in Game 2?Under won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Dota 2: Aurora vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event