Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b4108f272ec269e6281f5b3e6ea58fd213b7f1ccd62689b03cbcf5a48d4c3b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Aurora, MOUZ
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $128,102
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $128,102 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 170 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x66fb…9f72backed Aurora | 60c | 45,050$26,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,129.81 | 545 | 56.5%308 W · 237 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked MOUZ | 40c | 14,246$5,638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,637.6 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked Aurora | 53c | 14,211$7,532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,679.12 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e38…de0fbacked MOUZ | 43c | 7,594$3,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,240.11 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked MOUZ | 41c | 5,999$2,430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,429.85 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…61d0backed MOUZ | 43c | 5,263$2,276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,275.78 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7951…bb41backed MOUZ | 40c | 5,148$2,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,041.15 | 647 | 44.4%287 W · 360 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked MOUZ | 41c | 4,499$1,831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,831.42 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb63…a71dbacked Aurora | 74c | 3,644$2,713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$931.67 | 201 | 59.7%120 W · 81 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x506b…3f70backed MOUZ | 47c | 3,194$1,488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,487.77 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…39b3backed Aurora | 53c | 2,747$1,463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,283.9 | 714 | 54.5%389 W · 325 L | +55.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad72…4f5ebacked MOUZ | 47c | 2,698$1,268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,268.14 | 368 | 51.6%190 W · 178 L | +25.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8c…fd3dbacked MOUZ | 40c | 2,182$875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$875 | 485 | 39.2%190 W · 295 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed MOUZ | 32c | 2,085$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.67 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…56efbacked MOUZ | 39c | 2,000$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770 | 565 | 42.8%242 W · 323 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f40…e1f2backed MOUZ | 39c | 2,000$776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$775.99 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -7.0wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a06…31d8backed Aurora | 63c | 1,941$1,216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$725.29 | 416 | 55.3%230 W · 186 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd055…28d0backed MOUZ | 47c | 1,854$871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$871.17 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | +12.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked MOUZ | 37c | 1,729$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$632.39 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf988…d63bbacked MOUZ | 43c | 1,703$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.94 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed MOUZ | 39c | 1,500$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 557 | 51.7%288 W · 269 L | +16.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0738…6392backed Aurora | 71c | 1,416$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.54 | 212 | 64.2%136 W · 76 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2146…d41bbacked Aurora | 72c | 1,382$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.28 | 897 | 41.5%372 W · 525 L | +22.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0caf…91adbacked Aurora | 67c | 1,031$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.02 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | -9.7wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b7…7ffabacked MOUZ | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa27c…ab67backed MOUZ | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.94 | 799 | 59.4%475 W · 324 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…ed28backed MOUZ | 37c | 812.48$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.4 | 605 | 52.6%318 W · 287 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacf6…41fcbacked MOUZ | 62c | 809.69$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 606 | 46.9%284 W · 322 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…9b8dbacked MOUZ | 40c | 807.5$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed MOUZ | 56c | 738.96$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.96 | 804 | 43.9%353 W · 451 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked Aurora | 41c | 705.42$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.07 | 552 | 51.6%285 W · 267 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19b6…ad8ebacked MOUZ | 32c | 700.42$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.91 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf5…42f2backed Aurora | 61c | 675.18$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.92 | 574 | 55.4%318 W · 256 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92f8…0e1fbacked MOUZ | 47c | 638.29$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -20%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…32b1backed MOUZ | 47c | 602.91$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.73 | 312 | 45.8%143 W · 169 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked MOUZ | 38c | 555$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.9 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Aurora | 63c | 529.07$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.01 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9942…5c84backed Aurora | 70c | 502.26$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.26 | 264 | 53%140 W · 124 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed MOUZ | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 134 | 55.2%74 W · 60 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed MOUZ | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 810 | 29.4%238 W · 572 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed MOUZ | 40c | 499.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 1,248 | 44.4%554 W · 694 L | +17.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e64…89c3backed MOUZ | 45c | 497.85$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc2…64d1backed MOUZ | 45c | 473$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.85 | 110 | 43.6%48 W · 62 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed MOUZ | 46c | 455.35$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.98 | 915 | 53.3%488 W · 427 L | +48.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6450…9547backed MOUZ | 39c | 445.37$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb5…6be6backed MOUZ | 32c | 444.71$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.78 | 256 | 39.5%101 W · 155 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d6…9aeabacked Aurora | 49c | 407.2$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.38 | 121 | 32.2%39 W · 82 L | -8.6wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…54cebacked Aurora | 54c | 389.79$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.79 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24ac…f6b4backed MOUZ | 39c | 348.9$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.07 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -7.9wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9d…1299backed MOUZ | 28c | 348.54$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d8…c3f8backed MOUZ | 47c | 341.58$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.29 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Aurora | 52c | 341.11$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.57 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked MOUZ | 31c | 333.93$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.35 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x974a…98c3backed MOUZ | 39c | 328$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.92 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb11…66cbbacked MOUZ | 40c | 320$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 147 | 44.9%66 W · 81 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04d3…cdacbacked MOUZ | 39c | 306.55$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.55 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8d…ab7ebacked MOUZ | 45c | 300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.91 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef0…f14cbacked MOUZ | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 11cpaid | +198.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…d853backed MOUZ | 46c | 300$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 615 | 48.8%300 W · 315 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61a5…caa6backed MOUZ | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda6…6ae0backed MOUZ | 43c | 299$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.09 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed MOUZ | 40c | 298.69$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.92 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3833…33d1backed Aurora | 66c | 287.62$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.24 | 426 | 50%213 W · 213 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0828…5cfebacked Aurora | 54c | 283.28$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.03 | 165 | 50.9%84 W · 81 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9c…101cbacked Aurora | 64c | 276.79$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.64 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x423f…eedcbacked MOUZ | 41c | 260$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.71 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64a8…7bc3backed MOUZ | 39c | 257.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 146 | 61%89 W · 57 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Aurora | 40c | 239.94$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.7 | 122 | 52.5%64 W · 58 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5f…3397backed MOUZ | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 237 | 46.8%111 W · 126 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65e0…e51dbacked MOUZ | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 194 | 43.3%84 W · 110 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf28…46adbacked MOUZ | 25c | 220$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66ed…d321backed MOUZ | 34c | 208.58$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 340 | 45.9%156 W · 184 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed MOUZ | 47c | 208.51$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 336 | 45.5%153 W · 183 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x101f…b386backed Aurora | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 321 | 54.8%176 W · 145 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0a…320abacked MOUZ | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 920 | 56.4%519 W · 401 L | +78.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7cad…6ce4backed MOUZ | 57c | 199.99$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x860e…a06dbacked Aurora | 64c | 196.06$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.01 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb22d…3a13backed Aurora | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 240 | 45.4%109 W · 131 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed MOUZ | 41c | 184.66$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.83 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde2a…6bfebacked MOUZ | 62c | 170.91$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.96 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked MOUZ | 39c | 170.39$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x432f…0b4cbacked Aurora | 61c | 157$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c77…55a4backed MOUZ | 39c | 156.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f2…eec6backed MOUZ | 64c | 155.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 554 | 57.8%320 W · 234 L | +12.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab4…96a5backed Aurora | 57c | 146.63$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.05 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…c84dbacked MOUZ | 46c | 145$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.15 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked MOUZ | 35c | 140.71$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.86 | 154 | 50%77 W · 77 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…70c0backed Aurora | 52c | 130$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.8 | 630 | 32.5%205 W · 425 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed MOUZ | 36c | 128$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.08 | 118 | 41.5%49 W · 69 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe252…2071backed MOUZ | 32c | 120$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 171 | 49.7%85 W · 86 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe99e…0084backed MOUZ | 42c | 119.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 876 | 45.7%400 W · 476 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed MOUZ | 24c | 114.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2639…a9b6backed Aurora | 54c | 111.82$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.98 | 155 | 49%76 W · 79 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed MOUZ | 37c | 107.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 137 | 33.6%46 W · 91 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c57…bf46backed MOUZ | 47c | 107$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked MOUZ | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 404 | 42.3%171 W · 233 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4b…f7d2backed MOUZ | 14c | 105.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd154…9265backed MOUZ | 29c | 102.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x055a…d83bbacked Aurora | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed MOUZ | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs MOUZ (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group StageAurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs MOUZ - Game 1 WinnerAurora won
- Game Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5)Aurora won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 49.5 in Game 2?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.