Tennis · resolved market
Terra Wortmann: Rublev vs. Ofner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb6e791dcb76e464712a4fc2116e3d198befdac30eb243182d16bcd298c91bb2d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rublev of Rublev , Ofner
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,991
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,889
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,991 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Ofner | 34c | 5,804$1,973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,973.49 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a06…1e43backed Rublev | 66c | 4,544$2,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,545.04 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Ofner | 11c | 2,062$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.52 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad94…85b1backed Ofner | 34c | 1,456$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.98 | 122 | 31.1%38 W · 84 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Rublev | 78c | 1,133$884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.56 | 260 | 39.2%102 W · 158 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…4d22backed Rublev | 65c | 999.93$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.97 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Rublev | 66c | 909.09$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.09 | 1,446 | 48.8%706 W · 740 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Ofner | 33c | 895.94$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.66 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7a…6f28backed Ofner | 35c | 857.14$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Ofner | 19c | 832.6$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.58 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Rublev | 65c | 799.23$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.73 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9f…59f3backed Rublev | 66c | 606.06$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.06 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x433f…a0dcbacked Ofner | 35c | 525.63$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.97 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Rublev | 67c | 500$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 231 | 52.4%121 W · 110 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6332…6128backed Ofner | 38c | 423.08$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 108 | 39.8%43 W · 65 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Rublev | 71c | 404.07$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.99 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc076…3303backed Rublev | 66c | 367.23$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.86 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf442…ccf8backed Rublev | 66c | 313$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.42 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Ofner | 34c | 200$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c9…bb9ebacked Rublev | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Rublev | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Rublev | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Ofner | 35c | 120$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 421 | 41.8%176 W · 245 L | -12.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Rublev | 61c | 109.98$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.89 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Rublev | 66c | 93.55$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.81 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3152…6e69backed Rublev | 64c | 75.63$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7665…f332backed Rublev | 70c | 65.27$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Ofner | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 459 | 9.6%44 W · 415 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2c…8284backed Rublev | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86d9…f7edbacked Rublev | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.