La Liga · resolved market
Will Valencia win on 2025-10-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb700a176a318663b29e6348f19daaa19b94b1f1e56a238bbfbeaedebc8fa3a6b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,841
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,245
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,841 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 34c | 30,000$10,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,200 | 172 | 48.8%84 W · 88 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed No | 66c | 19,572$12,918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,654.62 | 94 | 59.6%56 W · 38 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 70c | 11,293$7,904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,389.13 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 68c | 2,608$1,782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825.06 | 157 | 50.3%79 W · 78 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 77c | 2,036$1,577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.73 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb5…8b87backed Yes | 24c | 1,730$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked No | 66c | 1,716$1,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.56 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 31c | 1,250$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.5 | 155 | 16.1%25 W · 130 L | -10.3wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Yes | 31c | 1,050$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0727…ec27backed Yes | 28c | 714.24$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefb4…0238backed Yes | 11c | 677.33$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed No | 66c | 657.09$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.41 | 186 | 50%93 W · 93 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 3c | 622$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe797…2b36backed Yes | 31c | 600$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 13c | 503.35$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.43 | 274 | 53.6%147 W · 127 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aba…7442backed Yes | 34c | 500$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…c20dbacked Yes | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 70c | 350$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.3 | 559 | 41.1%230 W · 329 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 32c | 346.01$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.77 | 278 | 54.7%152 W · 126 L | +20.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Yes | 29c | 300$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -6.0wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x41e3…1962backed Yes | 20c | 294.37$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d4…962dbacked No | 68c | 294.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.12 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Yes | 29c | 261.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.98 | 119 | 47.1%56 W · 63 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked No | 66c | 249.76$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.29 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd2…b035backed Yes | 9c | 244.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -56%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf845…810ebacked Yes | 32c | 183.39$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed Yes | 11c | 144$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +10.8wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked Yes | 31c | 129.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…770cbacked Yes | 28c | 120$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 129 | 17.8%23 W · 106 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb4…0c34backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72e1…20c6backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10f1…958ebacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5c…48f9backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…5a2bbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 36cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f8e…0a87backed Yes | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef3…2cd8backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Yes | 31c | 65.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf778…2f09backed Yes | 31c | 65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9f…f4afbacked Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…5f3ebacked Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 65cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x825a…ece6backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc26d…63f2backed Yes | 29c | 64.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbe…cd73backed Yes | 31c | 64.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb02d…208ebacked Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x752f…9332backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3602…b407backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23de…05c1backed Yes | 32c | 42.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…9b53backed Yes | 32c | 37.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2408…9de9backed No | 68c | 29.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Valencia win on 2025-10-04?this page
- Will Girona vs. Valencia end in a draw?No won
- Will Girona win on 2025-10-04?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.