South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA Independiente: O/U 0.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7184524a69ca2b82f7ee034bb5016b9dcd31491f5734f884b070a3bed5da4c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,160
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,896
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,160 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 68c | 7,873$5,361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,512.69 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 37c | 4,290$1,572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,572.4 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 38c | 3,378$1,270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,270.44 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…ea53backed Under | 11c | 2,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 248 | 55.2%137 W · 111 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab45…f5e0backed Under | 12c | 1,673$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.72 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27e4…4803backed Over | 60c | 1,500$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 62cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 75c | 1,222$915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.81 | 538 | 36.8%198 W · 340 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe57d…bf4cbacked Under | 1c | 1,058$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 118 | 17.8%21 W · 97 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c35…78abbacked Under | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 15cpaid | +312.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba57…1e84backed Over | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 13c | 690.58$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.79 | 184 | 26.1%48 W · 136 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31b3…b35cbacked Under | 15c | 641.41$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.21 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 16cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeddf…a953backed Under | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…9507backed Over | 56c | 499.99$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1c…3347backed Under | 13c | 461.52$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 215 | 38.1%82 W · 133 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c8…142bbacked Under | 17c | 439.14$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 112 | 20.5%23 W · 89 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Under | 22c | 375.93$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.58 | 552 | 50.2%277 W · 275 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 21c | 359.9$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.36 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -28.0wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked Over | 74c | 336.81$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.81 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5946backed Under | 10c | 303.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 38c | 296.62$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.59 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 38c | 296.61$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 601 | 56.2%338 W · 263 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 13c | 249.62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 457 | 46.8%214 W · 243 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 38c | 246.2$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.24 | 464 | 49.6%230 W · 234 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Under | 12c | 201.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 197 | 11.2%22 W · 175 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed Under | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 288 | 51.7%149 W · 139 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…ff1bbacked Under | 44c | 199.04$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.13 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 38c | 187.32$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.76 | 331 | 52.6%174 W · 157 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 39c | 157.14$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.44 | 694 | 53.5%371 W · 323 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 11c | 149$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…a8e0backed Under | 22c | 114.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 87 | 55.2%48 W · 39 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x859f…0f26backed Over | 57c | 101.75$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.75 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 10c | 99.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 787 | 56.4%444 W · 343 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 11c | 96.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 559 | 46%257 W · 302 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 37c | 88.38$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.04 | 506 | 56.3%285 W · 221 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Under | 42c | 60.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 164 | 59.8%98 W · 66 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4502…9eedbacked Over | 52c | 58.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.76 | 160 | 51.3%82 W · 78 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Under | 37c | 55.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Under | 35c | 52.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 111 | 55%61 W · 50 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x345c…b59dbacked Over | 60c | 41.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fa…581fbacked Under | 39c | 41.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 104 | 58.7%61 W · 43 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9b…7a9fbacked Under | 39c | 41.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 43 | 72.1%31 W · 12 L | +5.9wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x42c7…c415backed Under | 39c | 38.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 87 | 60.9%53 W · 34 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1c…d47dbacked Under | 45c | 35.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 675 | 48%324 W · 351 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf903…de2fbacked Over | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +191.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Over | 57c | 24.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA Independiente: O/U 0.5this page
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA Independiente: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA Independiente: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA Independiente: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA Independiente: O/U 1.5Under won
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA Independiente: O/U 2.5Under won
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA Independiente: O/U 3.5Under won
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA Independiente: O/U 4.5Under won
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA Independiente: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: CA Independiente (-1.5)CA Vélez Sarsfield won
- Spread: CA Vélez Sarsfield (-1.5)CA Independiente won
- Spread: CA Vélez Sarsfield (-2.5)CA Independiente won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.