South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA Independiente: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc30bf40b8a5b81c2ae32ad7aad13eb3c3f9b7241a5388a0b34d7d41ef28d4830
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,784
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,982
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,784 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf5f9…87b0backed Over | 65c | 13,889$9,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,012.43 | 183 | 52.5%96 W · 87 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 35c | 6,000$2,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,869.99 | 347 | 47.6%165 W · 182 L | +17.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 55c | 4,024$2,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,818.95 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 37c | 3,433$1,284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,284.42 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Under | 55c | 3,203$1,769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,433.54 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 35c | 2,506$878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,627.82 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 64c | 2,456$1,579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,578.54 | 491 | 36.3%178 W · 313 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed Under | 35c | 2,199$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,429.35 | 150 | 45.3%68 W · 82 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 35c | 1,500$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$975 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5c…ab50backed Over | 42c | 1,428$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.89 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked Over | 39c | 1,302$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.32 | 194 | 47.9%93 W · 101 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 66c | 1,216$802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$802.33 | 1,439 | 37.5%540 W · 899 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 49c | 1,100$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.89 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 75c | 563.91$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.89 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 56c | 536.42$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.77 | 538 | 36.8%198 W · 340 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 55c | 519.92$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.95 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 34c | 516.96$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.19 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a64…683ebacked Under | 35c | 465$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.25 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…033ebacked Over | 28c | 433.01$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.03 | 113 | 54.9%62 W · 51 L | +10.5wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +28%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 74c | 397.84$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.44 | 217 | 52.1%113 W · 104 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 44c | 397.8$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.03 | 723 | 50.5%365 W · 358 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4502…9eedbacked Over | 26c | 377.84$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.24 | 160 | 51.3%82 W · 78 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 36c | 347.57$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.44 | 559 | 46%257 W · 302 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde39…2fa1backed Over | 11c | 326.91$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 108 | 28.7%31 W · 77 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9726…fb3fbacked Over | 64c | 319.08$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 68c | 236.25$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.99 | 898 | 46.1%414 W · 484 L | -11.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 34c | 230.59$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.19 | 321 | 39.6%127 W · 194 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 46c | 219.66$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.66 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 34c | 199$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.34 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Over | 44c | 192.18$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.99 | 552 | 50.2%277 W · 275 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x975c…6343backed Over | 58c | 180.12$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.96 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 44c | 142.16$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.03 | 506 | 56.3%285 W · 221 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 34c | 142$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.02 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 36c | 128.48$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.08 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -28.0wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…44e9backed Under | 35c | 123.08$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 182 | 47.8%87 W · 95 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…c3d9backed Under | 56c | 119.93$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.77 | 107 | 66.4%71 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…965abacked Over | 15c | 110$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 90 | 26.7%24 W · 66 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc39…398abacked Over | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ede…23e5backed Under | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 30c | 98.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 457 | 46.8%214 W · 243 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1c…3347backed Over | 31c | 97.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 215 | 38.1%82 W · 133 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 57c | 93.12$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.98 | 464 | 49.6%230 W · 234 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 28c | 86.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 55c | 79.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.19 | 251 | 47.8%120 W · 131 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…f356backed Under | 56c | 79.16$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.83 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6daa…954abacked Over | 66c | 72.14$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.61 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 67c | 69.93$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.85 | 601 | 56.2%338 W · 263 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 67c | 69.92$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.85 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Under | 43c | 66$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 352 | 46.9%165 W · 187 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a86…0079backed Under | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 57c | 54.37$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 694 | 53.5%371 W · 323 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…5b51backed Under | 59c | 54.36$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 128 | 50%64 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1c…d47dbacked Under | 68c | 53.21$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 66c | 51$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 449 | 39.2%176 W · 273 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 787 | 56.4%444 W · 343 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 35c | 49.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.86 | 404 | 51.2%207 W · 197 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5d…df19backed Under | 43c | 38.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.69 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 63c | 36.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aea…34b7backed Over | 33c | 35.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c52…99e1backed Under | 71c | 29.39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 68 | 77.9%53 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…ab54backed Over | 35c | 28.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.16per pick | 37cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x12c8…20d5backed Over | 62c | 27.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dfe…d954backed Over | 51c | 26.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…ff1bbacked Under | 68c | 24.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fd…10ccbacked Under | 59c | 23.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…7199backed Over | 64c | 18.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Over | 57c | 18.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 646 | 33.1%214 W · 432 L | -24.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Under | 69c | 17.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 65c | 15.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA Independiente: O/U 1.5this page
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA Independiente: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA Independiente: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA Independiente: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA Independiente: O/U 0.5Over won
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA Independiente: O/U 2.5Under won
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA Independiente: O/U 3.5Under won
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA Independiente: O/U 4.5Under won
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA Independiente: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: CA Independiente (-1.5)CA Vélez Sarsfield won
- Spread: CA Vélez Sarsfield (-1.5)CA Independiente won
- Spread: CA Vélez Sarsfield (-2.5)CA Independiente won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.