Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on April 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb74d5e9e0f4acf92e03004b4f04e62f5d71471580540b28978508bee6e818ddb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,314
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,472
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,314 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xba0e…0eebbacked Yes | 0c | 36,053$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…a761backed Yes | 1c | 2,438$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64ad…bde6backed No | 78c | 543.25$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.7 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 9c | 529.45$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.21 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca71…610bbacked No | 70c | 461.4$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.23 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +13.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 22c | 397.04$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.28 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked Yes | 7c | 373.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…50febacked Yes | 57c | 336.85$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.36 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -4.8wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 259.51$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.94 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 28c | 212.91$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.7 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 33c | 209.67$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes | 8c | 145.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 72c | 144.4$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.76 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 33c | 127.06$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.56 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 74c | 113.69$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.3 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 33c | 112.8$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.74 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…2fadbacked No | 75c | 98.73$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.68 | 120 | 68.3%82 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 23c | 90$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 22c | 88.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd513…e249backed Yes | 33c | 85.89$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 31c | 83.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbc…1d9ebacked No | 73c | 80.79$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.47 | 115 | 69.6%80 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 25c | 72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 31c | 69.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 35c | 67.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3013…abdbbacked Yes | 28c | 64.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -12%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 28c | 61.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 70c | 61.57$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked Yes | 29c | 61.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaafb…e81ebacked Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 152 | 75.7%115 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 30c | 57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 29c | 53.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 78c | 50.07$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50ad…1588backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fde…cc92backed No | 64c | 49.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 39c | 49.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a33…13f3backed Yes | 31c | 49.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 26c | 49.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 31c | 47.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87b0…d3f8backed Yes | 33c | 47.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 72c | 46.38$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 28c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8d…2877backed No | 69c | 43.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x438d…925dbacked Yes | 29c | 41.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 30c | 39.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 75c | 39.41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf1…ffd5backed Yes | 32c | 38.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…9f9fbacked No | 71c | 37.21$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 111 | 45%50 W · 61 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 67c | 36.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…9908backed No | 69c | 35.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 69c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f85…1774backed No | 72c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…bf83backed Yes | 31c | 32.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb160…4409backed No | 70c | 31.72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf9…96e1backed No | 71c | 31.07$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9863…14ecbacked No | 69c | 29.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…3e19backed No | 72c | 28.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 74c | 24.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a96…88bebacked No | 71c | 24.43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 73c | 23.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 59c | 23.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 19.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 66c | 19.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5afa…55d8backed No | 74c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc1…5f7bbacked No | 71c | 17.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 105 | 69.5%73 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26e4…0b1fbacked No | 70c | 15.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9a…5e9fbacked No | 74c | 13.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on April 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 76°F or higher on April 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on April 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.