Asian League · resolved market
Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb75805197bf39983e0c9897de69d074f7a9e059916cf29b839782cd9ff62916d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,034
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,260
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,034 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 11c | 3,402$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.27 | 2,650 | 40.2%1,065 W · 1,585 L | -17.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 58c | 1,048$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.15 | 2,620 | 42%1,101 W · 1,519 L | +51.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Yes | 33c | 1,035$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344 | 140 | 41.4%58 W · 82 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 29c | 690.02$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.89 | 1,575 | 35.2%554 W · 1,021 L | -36.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe84a…5baabacked Yes | 15c | 600$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.08 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…4333backed No | 76c | 392.23$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.7 | 50 | 76%38 W · 12 L | +6.8wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dc…586cbacked Yes | 58c | 343.84$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 145 | 37.2%54 W · 91 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…86e1backed Yes | 15c | 317.05$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.71 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd9f…c675backed Yes | 66c | 303.03$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -5.5wins | -0.37per pick | 43cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 70c | 299.1$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.73 | 2,612 | 37.8%988 W · 1,624 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed No | 75c | 265.33$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.33 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…8aedbacked Yes | 36c | 263.26$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.29 | 59 | 27.1%16 W · 43 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 70c | 246.32$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.91 | 798 | 42.4%338 W · 460 L | -27.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 28c | 216$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.93 | 311 | 24.8%77 W · 234 L | -14.9wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x294f…eeabbacked Yes | 41c | 214.37$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.89 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.21per pick | 63cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked No | 72c | 207.78$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.87 | 185 | 44.9%83 W · 102 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b03…b127backed Yes | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f57…f8c5backed Yes | 27c | 180$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.49 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39f9…fcc3backed No | 68c | 154.96$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.49 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a6…7971backed Yes | 65c | 152.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfedf…60f1backed Yes | 23c | 143.55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 18cpaid | +361.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 69c | 138.34$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.21 | 993 | 44.4%441 W · 552 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa29…9ce5backed Yes | 37c | 134.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.17 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef80…7fcdbacked Yes | 41c | 127.76$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.38 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -4.8wins | -0.30per pick | 61cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5c…91fcbacked No | 41c | 126.41$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.16 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 74c | 110.29$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.68 | 1,196 | 46.2%553 W · 643 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…0bb1backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 68 | 23.5%16 W · 52 L | -9.4wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5577…53d2backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb3e…1fbbbacked No | 70c | 99.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d5…2b9cbacked Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked Yes | 14c | 95.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 337 | 48.1%162 W · 175 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8eb…0acbbacked Yes | 26c | 86.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 121 | 43%52 W · 69 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Yes | 34c | 75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 586 | 45.4%266 W · 320 L | -23.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 59c | 73.59$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.17 | 858 | 47.8%410 W · 448 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked No | 71c | 68.96$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 234 | 50%117 W · 117 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd494…bfafbacked Yes | 29c | 68.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +85%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc28c…6fb2backed Yes | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +4.7wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x14f2…2cb0backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked No | 67c | 51.13$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.84 | 215 | 66%142 W · 73 L | +29.2wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 496 | 52.8%262 W · 234 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8384…3953backed Yes | 36c | 49.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 48c | 42.67$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 841 | 53.6%451 W · 390 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked No | 72c | 42.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 193 | 56%108 W · 85 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…b03cbacked No | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca00…848dbacked Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa24e…1be8backed No | 66c | 30.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 48c | 25.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed No | 75c | 19.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 238 | 55%131 W · 107 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bde…ecbabacked Yes | 58c | 18.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed No | 70c | 18.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 224 | 69.6%156 W · 68 L | +33.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x23bc…5487backed No | 69c | 15.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2026-08-28?Yes won
- Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2026-08-28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.