Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on August 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7686e16f98a994eb3a43608fb98a1b6114a7b5e6257b98c20b75ce1060875b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,410
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,779
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,410 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 42c | 982.41$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.4 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 54c | 306.46$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.2 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 58c | 183.48$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.41 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 59c | 174.27$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.64 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 59c | 171$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.11 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 53c | 170.23$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.27 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 58c | 140$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 53c | 132.66$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.31 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 52c | 129.62$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.79 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 121.53$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.21 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 34c | 116.78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.06 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 54c | 116.05$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.12 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 58c | 109.62$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.94 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes | 63c | 106.3$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.89 | 142 | 22.5%32 W · 110 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…94b4backed No | 44c | 99.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.69 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked No | 42c | 97$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.26 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 58c | 85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.46 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 56c | 80$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 55c | 73.09$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.53 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 51c | 70.82$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.02 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 49c | 66.55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.94 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 58c | 63.34$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.84 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed No | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 55c | 59.3$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.54 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed Yes | 55c | 57.3$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.51 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 48c | 56.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.58 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 52c | 56.19$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 55c | 55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 39c | 55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0506…bc49backed Yes | 47c | 52.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes | 39c | 45.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 52c | 45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 44c | 42.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…16f9backed No | 67c | 40.6$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 51c | 38.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 41c | 37.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7284…b0f2backed No | 73c | 36.67$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 112 | 42%47 W · 65 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 43c | 30.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 39c | 29.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 52c | 28.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 48c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914d…dd11backed Yes | 53c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 60c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…3a34backed Yes | 49c | 20.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfb…636dbacked Yes | 52c | 19.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 112 | 25%28 W · 84 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on August 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on August 1?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.