Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on August 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2643eaeebbb2657edc46ec9e22a108a8c435d964715713324b72afa1a27940ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,233
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,059
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,233 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 26c | 548.38$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.8 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 526.79$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.38 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 76c | 463.62$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.42 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 21c | 263.27$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.72 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 20c | 230.28$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.52 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 64c | 222.04$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.36 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 49c | 209.33$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.5 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 27c | 205.51$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.88 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked Yes | 26c | 196.55$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.05 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 61c | 194.21$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.91 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 76c | 190.46$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.2 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 60c | 169.68$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.04 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 63c | 152.62$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.4 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 74c | 150.18$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.58 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 73c | 130.11$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.92 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 74c | 126.97$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.78 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked No | 35c | 116.52$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.07 | 158 | 50.6%80 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 26c | 114.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.36 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…16f9backed Yes | 41c | 108$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.72 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…94b4backed No | 73c | 99.98$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.99 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 58c | 87.86$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.56 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 60c | 85$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.88 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 77c | 79.46$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.56 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 24c | 72.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.88 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 30c | 72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.69 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 36c | 64.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 74c | 63.34$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.74 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 22c | 61.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.05 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 50c | 59.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 74c | 53.66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed Yes | 24c | 53.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.46 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed0c…fccdbacked Yes | 75c | 49.18$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 126 | 60.3%76 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 76c | 47.45$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.83 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 26c | 41.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.99 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 41.64$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.83 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 77c | 40.83$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.48 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 46c | 39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc6c…a7f5backed Yes | 41c | 36.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.38 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd4…6084backed No | 78c | 35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 135 | 34.1%46 W · 89 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 65c | 34.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 79c | 31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1f…2dd0backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -3.8wins | -0.22per pick | 69cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 73c | 25.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 58c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 55c | 21.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 80c | 18.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 72c | 18.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d66…a545backed No | 69c | 18.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 114 | 69.3%79 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 75c | 17.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 69c | 17.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 75c | 15.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 73c | 15.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 76c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0506…bc49backed No | 79c | 14.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on August 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on August 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.