Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7888a476780670a3a7bb04ece3fd71b4570d24d818c36423cd51d627f29964f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,633
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,462
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,633 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 45c | 867.18$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 14c | 389.35$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.48 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 55c | 342$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.98 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 36c | 227.25$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.32 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 55c | 206$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.7 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 70c | 202.67$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.52 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 39c | 165.07$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.1 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 66c | 160.2$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.02 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 9c | 145.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 56c | 140.4$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.29 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 57c | 135.19$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.35 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b08…2086backed No | 66c | 121.92$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.92 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 65cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 43c | 115.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 13c | 115$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 59c | 109$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.03 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.95 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 56c | 95.56$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.31 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 17c | 92.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 21c | 83.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 62c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 16c | 78.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 39c | 74.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 66c | 65$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.95 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 42c | 63.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.41 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 62c | 57.67$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 53c | 49.38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 55c | 48.82$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.97 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 55c | 48.3$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 36c | 47.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 52c | 46.62$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.16 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 78c | 46.1$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 50c | 44.89$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 52c | 44.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 72c | 43.78$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 56c | 36.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…e0c1backed No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa769…843ebacked Yes | 48c | 31.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 75c | 31.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 63c | 30.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 57c | 28.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 66c | 27.54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02be…fb0ebacked No | 55c | 27.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c0…eb75backed No | 58c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 58c | 26.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51f…24e8backed No | 59c | 23.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -4.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 56c | 20.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 73c | 20.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…c61bbacked No | 77c | 19.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e6f…699abacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 80cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on July 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on July 31?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.