Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa55aa1dbc2d224d016e87100054a48b4d52f18d5c0ecb2aac962a03d16ebf4b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,119
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,166
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,119 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 31c | 516.54$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.63 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 40c | 359.52$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.75 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 353.87$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.34 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 8c | 254.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 55c | 214.27$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.47 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 69c | 171$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.99 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 71c | 171$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.41 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 44c | 154.21$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.4 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9288backed No | 65c | 152.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 172 | 62.2%107 W · 65 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b08…2086backed Yes | 62c | 152.74$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.74 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 65cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 131.44$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.69 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 122.5$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.86 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 75c | 112.92$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.07 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 31c | 110.23$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 49c | 104.95$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.3 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.18 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 48c | 96.66$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.09 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 46c | 90.22$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.15 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed No | 60c | 89.43$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.86 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 51c | 77.06$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.19 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 31c | 72.58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.08 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 56c | 71.08$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.08 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed No | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 53c | 63.83$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 69c | 59.3$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.11 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 58c | 55$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4d…01c3backed Yes | 51c | 51.27$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.15 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 69c | 50.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.21 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 69c | 49.38$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.83 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 70c | 48.82$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.17 | 165 | 66.1%109 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 47c | 46.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68af…2639backed Yes | 38c | 42.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.21 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 57c | 42.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 49c | 39.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…645abacked Yes | 33c | 38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.37 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea5…0b15backed Yes | 43c | 34.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 34c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb092…48d5backed Yes | 68c | 29.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 65c | 28.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 69c | 27.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 57c | 26.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 61c | 26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 51c | 25.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 55c | 22.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 67c | 21.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 55c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4910…bd79backed Yes | 78c | 18.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on July 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.