Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7a93a3f4f71652841828c2bf06854d2cefe88fd0c627615b3258fa0fba99ac6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,262
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,450
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,262 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 65c | 2,597$1,697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,696.58 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked Yes | 9c | 1,098$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.27 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14db…7cafbacked No | 30c | 988.42$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.42 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 8c | 834.09$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.45 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 32c | 736.9$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.46 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 55c | 727.31$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.46 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 33c | 479$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.28 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed No | 59c | 405.4$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.98 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 31c | 395.86$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.69 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 10c | 390.04$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.08 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 52c | 389.82$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.47 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 58c | 270.41$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.3 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 42c | 258.13$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.44 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9e…251fbacked No | 68c | 242.74$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.11 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +16.0wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked No | 80c | 240.97$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.31 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 51c | 226.81$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.73 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 23c | 206.62$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.76 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 69c | 200$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.81 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 27c | 199.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 26c | 198.41$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.71 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 32c | 188$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.84 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 26c | 185.13$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.13 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 27c | 185.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.15 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x463a…af96backed No | 67c | 178.51$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.3 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb33…19d9backed Yes | 15c | 163.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 31c | 156.22$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.16 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 51c | 154.18$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.2 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 32c | 150$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 39c | 138.77$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.98 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 46c | 131.79$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.1 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 21c | 129.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e04…80babacked No | 58c | 124.31$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 33c | 121$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.07 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 32c | 119.28$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.71 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed No | 75c | 112.05$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 34c | 110.47$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 72c | 106.92$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.24 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked No | 77c | 105.94$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.12 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 56c | 104.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.9 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 69c | 102.97$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.6 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 35c | 102.42$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.32 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 75c | 102$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2f0…35f7backed No | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +48%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 37c | 99.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 77c | 97.41$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.84 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed No | 56c | 95.7$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.88 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 78c | 94.91$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 35c | 87.74$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 47c | 85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd58…a581backed Yes | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cf…ae32backed No | 46c | 83.52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.84 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 72c | 80.24$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 49c | 79.21$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.63 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 23c | 68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.36 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 59c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d31…13c3backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 59.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.53 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 69c | 59.26$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 25c | 55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86cb…6c6dbacked Yes | 70c | 50.7$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.24 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf48c…8ec6backed No | 40c | 50.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.27 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 44c | 50.03$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa052…925abacked Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 31c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb6…4f98backed Yes | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -28%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee88…49a4backed No | 50c | 46.57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdab3…79b1backed No | 77c | 46.28$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae5f…bc30backed No | 73c | 45.81$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc948…c5c9backed Yes | 69c | 45.41$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe86f…4bf3backed No | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed No | 25c | 41.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.26 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 43c | 41.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x104d…5abbbacked No | 74c | 40.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 44c | 40.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 40.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xac71…f74cbacked No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 49c | 39.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed No | 75c | 39.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 51c | 36.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 59c | 35.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 34c | 32.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefe7…a709backed No | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f10…563bbacked Yes | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 49c | 29.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 67c | 29.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 68c | 28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4b…b048backed Yes | 70c | 25.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 74c | 25.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadda…684cbacked No | 80c | 25.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 85 | 80%68 W · 17 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 72c | 23.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 60c | 23.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.