Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9dfe9a9c54d8b83df58768a708bc3f3f22c9aa6d4226414ca3a45d87bceec535
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,536
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,251
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,536 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 46c | 732.14$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.92 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 9c | 589.39$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.88 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 57c | 509.92$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.04 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 46c | 407.83$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.03 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 26c | 361.34$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.39 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked No | 71c | 336.99$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.81 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 312.09$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.42 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 79c | 310.07$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.36 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 27c | 252.28$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.77 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 53c | 244.43$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.24 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 54c | 226.8$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.4 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 58c | 207.41$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.57 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked Yes | 17c | 199.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.99 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 45c | 198.74$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.16 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabcd…6771backed Yes | 30c | 184$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…2c8bbacked Yes | 70c | 161.69$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.15 | 36 | 75%27 W · 9 L | +5.9wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 31c | 154.77$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.79 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 35c | 150.34$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.52 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 79c | 149.92$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.06 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 66c | 145.5$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.53 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 25c | 143$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.47 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 25c | 138.55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.06 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 20c | 133.07$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.07 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 38c | 132.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.06 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 68c | 130.18$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.95 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 129.42$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.7 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 52c | 120.84$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.32 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 42c | 118.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.23 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 57c | 113.74$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.41 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed Yes | 34c | 104.41$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.41 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cf…ae32backed Yes | 47c | 103.47$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.66 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 34c | 103.37$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.15 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…2305backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 72 | 13.9%10 W · 62 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed Yes | 24c | 99.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.99 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 36c | 97.22$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.22 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 40c | 86.25$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x463a…af96backed Yes | 44c | 83.14$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.62 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 18c | 82.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed Yes | 47c | 78.46$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.28 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 49c | 77$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.96 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 27c | 75.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…0484backed Yes | 22c | 73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.94 | 161 | 29.2%47 W · 114 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 25c | 72.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.53 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 77c | 67.29$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.49 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9e…251fbacked Yes | 36c | 65.92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.19 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +16.0wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3d31…13c3backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 17c | 59.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 57c | 56.19$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 25c | 54.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.3 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 30c | 53.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 27c | 53.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.72 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 73c | 50.34$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…d2dabacked Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x654b…d007backed Yes | 72c | 49.4$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…1c86backed Yes | 36c | 48.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 36c | 48.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 21c | 47.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 115 | 19.1%22 W · 93 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…4dedbacked Yes | 30c | 46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.07 | 145 | 46.9%68 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x267d…ed00backed Yes | 74c | 44.32$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 70c | 43.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 36c | 41.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.86 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 30c | 41.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.87 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes | 67c | 41.13$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee88…49a4backed Yes | 31c | 38.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…56b7backed No | 69c | 38.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 29c | 37.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 57c | 35.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 69c | 33.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 64c | 32.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 44c | 32.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 31.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e04…80babacked Yes | 33c | 31.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.31 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda66…4aeebacked No | 73c | 31.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 72cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 69c | 29.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdab3…79b1backed Yes | 41c | 28.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed No | 71c | 28.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 78c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 75c | 27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed Yes | 47c | 25.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x476e…00a9backed Yes | 80c | 24.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…b03cbacked No | 63c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 133 | 63.9%85 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf707…59c8backed Yes | 46c | 21.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 50c | 21.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked No | 78c | 19.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked No | 78c | 19.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked Yes | 79c | 18.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 60c | 16.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1946…6367backed No | 69c | 16.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcab6…f3debacked No | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 72c | 14.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa109…7e42backed No | 78c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 110 | 68.2%75 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.