Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C or below on June 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7bc2f4b98de07ad758f85bf3c9e705366ba5011fe9c376f244d70a70bad4112
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,805
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,688
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,805 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 77c | 1,038$798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.61 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 19c | 840.7$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.12 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 14c | 817.52$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.36 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 5c | 655.28$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 32c | 578.12$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.71 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 38c | 561.78$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.91 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 34c | 361.57$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.07 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 76c | 281.43$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.85 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 35c | 279.7$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.69 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 79c | 215.98$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.72 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 51c | 213.92$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.91 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf9…1ffabacked Yes | 46c | 203.43$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109 | 101 | 21.8%22 W · 79 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 42c | 199.05$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.61 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 11c | 186.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.58 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed Yes | 7c | 158.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.96 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 9c | 157.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.64 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f7…335abacked Yes | 11c | 156$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.22 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +151.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 55c | 150$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.1 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 14c | 140.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.7 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 75c | 118.71$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.03 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 67c | 114$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.09 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 79c | 104.63$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.91 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 35c | 104.17$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.15 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5484…84e8backed No | 42c | 94.42$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 111 | 69.4%77 W · 34 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed No | 18c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 56c | 77.91$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.26 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca7…c5b6backed Yes | 64c | 77.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 79c | 75.71$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.81 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 72.74$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 25c | 70$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e72…bd5dbacked Yes | 51c | 60.86$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.98 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | +8.1wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 57c | 60.11$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.01 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked Yes | 28c | 54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.88 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 51c | 52.27$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.77 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 71c | 51.73$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.52 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4760…9899backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd212…5182backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 46.72$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x851d…a743backed Yes | 22c | 46.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.08 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 68c | 45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 62c | 43.46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71b5…d067backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d69…9f70backed Yes | 70c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 70c | 32.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 31.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc84…a0d2backed Yes | 68c | 31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 106 | 34.9%37 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd05e…f1e9backed No | 74c | 29.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f33…da59backed Yes | 52c | 27.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 74c | 25.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedd5…3235backed No | 45c | 24.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 50c | 24.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 60c | 21.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C or below on June 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.