Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ceafe04c63a447d86c007a681feb5a9b1481026abd6f2472f209626b79f30d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,142
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,044
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,142 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 8c | 1,880$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.99 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 33c | 367.19$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.78 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 38c | 279.7$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.36 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 223.7$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.67 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 27c | 192.81$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.39 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd05e…f1e9backed No | 71c | 185.69$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 31c | 167.46$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 34c | 160.52$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.37 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 67c | 154$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.52 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3609…3a0bbacked Yes | 37c | 145.24$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.18 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 29c | 142.42$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7968…615abacked No | 66c | 137.81$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.64 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 69c | 132.18$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.04 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 25c | 128.78$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.77 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 71c | 123.84$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.43 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 78c | 121.9$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.93 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 28c | 116.68$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 75c | 114$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.03 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 106.44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.58 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 75c | 104.17$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.78 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 102$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked Yes | 29c | 100.14$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 65c | 99.28$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.96 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…e2bdbacked Yes | 31c | 96.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +20.6wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 76c | 90.57$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 32c | 90.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 35c | 85.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 66c | 84$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4101…d968backed No | 69c | 83.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.04 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -29%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e97…7773backed No | 66c | 75.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.37 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 69c | 66.54$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf295…667abacked Yes | 31c | 62.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed Yes | 30c | 60.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…dd76backed No | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed Yes | 29c | 58.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 34c | 58.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 67c | 56.05$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 37c | 53.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5d…97a2backed No | 66c | 52.92$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 32c | 51.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45ea…b278backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 29c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89cb…60d8backed No | 69c | 48.55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 28c | 44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f7…c14bbacked No | 67c | 43.7$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 109 | 73.4%80 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 33c | 41.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 67c | 39.74$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 28c | 37.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 33c | 33.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 65c | 28.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 63c | 27.76$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 67c | 27.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 68c | 25.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 76c | 25.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 67c | 22.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 68c | 19.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 70c | 15.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C or below on June 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.