Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on August 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb80460799a83d291ec4c045ad9cc73f6fd844869d26fe79101bddd102e05a947
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,702
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,612
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,702 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 45c | 243.85$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.66 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 51c | 241.52$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.51 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 56c | 227$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.42 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 47c | 171.45$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.58 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 61c | 153.52$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.3 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 46c | 118.11$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.14 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 47c | 107.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.44 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 52c | 107.14$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.34 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.89 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 50c | 104.96$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.43 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 60c | 100.47$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.23 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 50c | 99.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 56c | 96.18$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.79 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 48c | 93$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.36 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 47c | 79$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed No | 48c | 77.89$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.49 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 53c | 77.78$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 68c | 72.11$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.35 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 54c | 69.89$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.99 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 39c | 61.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.32 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 52c | 56.45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.1 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb106…13f4backed No | 56c | 56.06$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.67 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 46c | 49.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 39c | 48.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.63 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 58c | 47.03$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 54c | 47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed No | 48c | 46.69$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 40c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 52c | 44.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 79c | 44.06$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 56c | 44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 43c | 42.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 45c | 41.18$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 50c | 38.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 53c | 37.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 35c | 34.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 43c | 34.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 53c | 34.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81fe…80ecbacked No | 57c | 33.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 50c | 31.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29ae…c79fbacked Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -10.0wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…8239backed Yes | 60c | 27.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 128 | 53.9%69 W · 59 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 62c | 23.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed No | 52c | 22.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3084backed Yes | 65c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 152 | 70.4%107 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 57c | 21.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on August 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on August 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on August 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.