Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on August 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33239f68a82e0d08cce998dacc05378e6e59807c57eed2203c169f2c46d24e35
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,679
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,960
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,679 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 39c | 321$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.65 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9288backed No | 69c | 286.09$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.4 | 172 | 62.2%107 W · 65 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 36c | 208.46$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.79 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 63c | 194$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.54 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 31c | 144.22$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.35 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 78c | 137.99$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.13 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c59…0c2cbacked No | 72c | 105.92$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.28 | 97 | 59.8%58 W · 39 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 25c | 100.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.33 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 33c | 95.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.31 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 40c | 89.5$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.69 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 61c | 87.85$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 28c | 77.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.14 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 69c | 72.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…4194backed Yes | 23c | 68.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.62 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 78c | 68.53$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.56 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 67.31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.44 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 65c | 60.95$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.37 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 35c | 60.03$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.17 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 67c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed No | 68c | 59.32$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 68c | 53.25$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764a…83d3backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 59c | 49.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 33c | 46.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b27…ff88backed Yes | 36c | 44.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.23 | 98 | 49%48 W · 50 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 54c | 43.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 68c | 40.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 39c | 39.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 34c | 38.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.11 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 61c | 37.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 39c | 30.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 42c | 30.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 59c | 27.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 43c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 68c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 69c | 15.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on August 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on August 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.