Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: HEROIC (-1.5) vs South America Rejects (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb808ddb53188dd411e234379799f528c06e9f386e32a6b8372d313d832f613db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- South America Rejectsof Heroic, South America Rejects
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,068
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,733
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,068 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x115f…e217backed South America Rejects | 75c | 617.21$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.81 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked South America Rejects | 50c | 580.3$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.22 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Heroic | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a53…1b12backed Heroic | 55c | 488.1$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.63 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cd…a898backed Heroic | 30c | 351.32$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.38 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Heroic | 26c | 343$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.56 | 198 | 57.1%113 W · 85 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdacb…c4fabacked South America Rejects | 43c | 184.17$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.53 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +78.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x101f…b386backed Heroic | 57c | 102.55$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.45 | 321 | 54.8%176 W · 145 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd19e…e997backed South America Rejects | 74c | 78.59$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ec…2b5ebacked South America Rejects | 73c | 67.38$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91df…fd49backed South America Rejects | 73c | 32.18$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 148 | 68.9%102 W · 46 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…d5dabacked South America Rejects | 58c | 25.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe881…fb3dbacked South America Rejects | 73c | 17.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -5.4wins | -0.19per pick | 66cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x839f…c2cebacked South America Rejects | 73c | 14.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: HEROIC (-1.5) vs South America Rejects (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: South America Rejects vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Wallachia PlayoffsSouth America Rejects won
- Dota 2: South America Rejects vs Heroic - Game 1 WinnerSouth America Rejects won
- Dota 2: South America Rejects vs Heroic - Game 2 WinnerHeroic won
- Game 1: Both Teams Beat Roshan?Yes won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.