Dota2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x623c8bde6b2c9cd275e713050f4419bd18b6f4beb133e5e0cce830d47b15da82
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,068
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,400
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,068 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2761…4d95backed Under | 50c | 1,393$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702.99 | 446 | 45.7%204 W · 242 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x642c…21a7backed Over | 50c | 974.8$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.56 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5618…f2c0backed Over | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc6…85f2backed Under | 50c | 582$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97c7…37adbacked Under | 52c | 579.38$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.28 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fab…afd6backed Under | 56c | 560.82$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8052…1124backed Under | 50c | 498.63$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.31 | 171 | 46.8%80 W · 91 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa382…d301backed Over | 44c | 463.43$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.52 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +85.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x028d…feccbacked Over | 49c | 455.14$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.12 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a8…bf60backed Over | 50c | 450.08$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.04 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Over | 46c | 389.57$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.17 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Over | 67c | 267.71$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.3 | 430 | 67%288 W · 142 L | +31.9wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd687…b2adbacked Under | 49c | 250$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Over | 46c | 234.29$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.52 | 107 | 35.5%38 W · 69 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Under | 49c | 222.98$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.26 | 168 | 42.9%72 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…57e2backed Over | 51c | 190.31$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.25 | 508 | 55.5%282 W · 226 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25c5…0031backed Over | 51c | 157.29$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.88 | 89 | 18%16 W · 73 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8784…0a9bbacked Under | 50c | 146.12$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe74…a70ebacked Over | 53c | 145.77$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.51 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Under | 50c | 112.27$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.14 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed Under | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1,248 | 44.4%554 W · 694 L | +17.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked Over | 34c | 89.28$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.77 | 405 | 34.6%140 W · 265 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…164dbacked Over | 44c | 71.51$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.05 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…81c5backed Over | 50c | 62.08$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 84 | 48.8%41 W · 43 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x785d…4e88backed Under | 50c | 52.21$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a28…41edbacked Under | 46c | 50.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 213 | 50.7%108 W · 105 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d28…87b5backed Over | 53c | 36.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x252f…2561backed Over | 51c | 29.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 316 | 59.8%189 W · 127 L | +18.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Dota 2: South America Rejects vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Wallachia PlayoffsSouth America Rejects won
- Dota 2: South America Rejects vs Heroic - Game 1 WinnerSouth America Rejects won
- Dota 2: South America Rejects vs Heroic - Game 2 WinnerHeroic won
- Game 1: Both Teams Beat Roshan?Yes won
- Game Handicap: HEROIC (-1.5) vs South America Rejects (+1.5)South America Rejects won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.