World Politics · resolved market
Thai Constitutional Court invalidates election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8116bcdfbfa2f0f563969460cdd19f72d6d840616951b01b34ba0702aebba67
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,320
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,104
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,320 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x47f5…934dbacked Yes | 8c | 15,135$1,164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,164.46 | 74 | 20.3%15 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x042a…b153backed Yes | 7c | 8,170$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.8 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 7c | 2,045$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.14 | 182 | 16.5%30 W · 152 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8853…9afebacked Yes | 7c | 1,415$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 1,314$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 169 | 1.8%3 W · 166 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5518…38a0backed Yes | 3c | 1,064$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 6c | 600$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 254 | 3.5%9 W · 245 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 11c | 540.18$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.77 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f80…be79backed Yes | 6c | 503.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 7c | 495.1$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.86 | 211 | 7.1%15 W · 196 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25b0…0799backed Yes | 6c | 494.12$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 9c | 360.72$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.77 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -61%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 7c | 300$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 149 | 4.7%7 W · 142 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…80aebacked Yes | 7c | 300$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.27per pick | 28cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b39…bc0dbacked Yes | 14c | 204$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf06…8758backed Yes | 7c | 194.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 7c | 165.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 186 | 28.5%53 W · 133 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 7c | 151.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 132 | 25%33 W · 99 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 9c | 134.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75f4…d2d7backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 55c | 58.55$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.