Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on April 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8196947ed25f29860311ced4ef2792ba7b0d2402c78ca506d82a338ecf06b6f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,942
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,437
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,942 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x292a…5d78backed Yes | 5c | 3,477$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.6 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 1c | 1,200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 3c | 633.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 3c | 549.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 478.31$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.77 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b6…77a7backed Yes | 15c | 297.26$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.77 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 4c | 296.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x198a…2080backed Yes | 6c | 259.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 10c | 245.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 32c | 238.15$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.34 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 37c | 191.1$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.35 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 7c | 178.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbc80…56a7backed Yes | 6c | 176.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 164 | 12.2%20 W · 144 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 35c | 169.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 62c | 148.3$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.43 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed Yes | 9c | 125.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 35c | 109.25$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e66…52f5backed Yes | 20c | 108.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 15c | 95.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed Yes | 39c | 62.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 61c | 55.5$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 35c | 52.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 76c | 50.4$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x882f…5967backed Yes | 42c | 48.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x113b…3048backed No | 64c | 41.45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 35c | 28.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d6…e027backed No | 68c | 28.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4da0…05c8backed No | 57c | 25.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 62c | 24.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe57d…043abacked No | 63c | 23.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 71c | 23.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…1075backed No | 67c | 21.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 25 | 80%20 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 78c | 19.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 67c | 16.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 72c | 16.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 70c | 15.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on April 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 53°F or below on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on April 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on April 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.