TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on April 11?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$20,811
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$24,001

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,811 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes52c1,224$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$584.021,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes53c1,068$571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$496.564,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No40c791.6$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.9712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x292a…5d78backed No52c432.07$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.689333.3%31 W · 62 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-26%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes52c428.27$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.7921436%77 W · 137 L+0.9wins0.00per pick36cpaid-14%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed Yes57c331.37$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.861,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x035a…ff68backed No50c298.49$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.2731542.9%135 W · 180 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes41c270.46$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.661,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No34c220.26$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.242,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes53c205.85$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.4439535.4%140 W · 255 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No31c179.99$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.342,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes12c179.91$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.7717,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No30c166.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes31c160.33$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.34,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc907…020fbacked Yes55c158.69$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.724452.3%23 W · 21 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+3.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes40c157.15$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.0565043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes13c139.65$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.61,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb43…e61bbacked Yes53c138.1$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.266747.8%32 W · 35 L+6.6wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+31.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes60c136.63$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.145,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes40c126.67$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.188,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes20c115.38$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.899,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No51c111.73$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.149,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e93…78a6backed Yes42c109.98$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.276418.8%12 W · 52 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-48.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No51c106.04$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.274,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf787…1b63backed Yes60c105.75$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.343238%164 W · 268 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes46c100.65$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.233450.6%169 W · 165 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes44c99.99$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$561,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa0b1…6754backed Yes60c99.16$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.6635465%230 W · 124 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaafc…ec67backed No50c95$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.544757.3%256 W · 191 L+53.9wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+24%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x43b6…77a7backed Yes53c89.7$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.049344.1%41 W · 52 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes17c85.13$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.597,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x610b…e158backed Yes21c83.9$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.286018.3%11 W · 49 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x756e…fe0fbacked Yes58c82.59$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.69633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-48.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3607…745fbacked No51c81.95$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.87683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick64cpaid+29.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc556…9720backed Yes70c73.78$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.525549%125 W · 130 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed Yes20c70.91$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.731,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe00f…abd9backed Yes65c64.72$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.8512147.9%58 W · 63 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes54c64.11$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.5389544.7%400 W · 495 L+30.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1d6…e027backed No60c63.55$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.948042.5%34 W · 46 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c64…c336backed Yes65c62.25$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.574030%12 W · 28 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-45.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9765…242ebacked Yes54c60$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.63650%18 W · 18 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-12.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2869…527dbacked No44c56.77$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0493734.9%327 W · 610 L-203.5wins-0.22per pick57cpaid-43.2%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed No20c55.98$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.941,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x988e…bd82backed No32c54.63$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7112339%48 W · 75 L+8.5wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+2.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes22c52.54$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.1233243.1%143 W · 189 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes36c48.46$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.2565934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1631…e954backed Yes32c48.21$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.941020%2 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-44%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc174…9d97backed Yes40c46.72$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.921435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75d3…3f0ebacked No54c46$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8420958.4%122 W · 87 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes62c44.69$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.9832352.9%171 W · 152 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7c2c…0053backed Yes64c44.5$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.081376.9%10 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.16per pick61cpaid+40.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No58c44$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.342,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4afa…b3ccbacked Yes27c42.63$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.277445.9%34 W · 40 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f18…5b28backed Yes45c41.64$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.7426566.4%176 W · 89 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd5ed…8b4bbacked Yes48c39.5$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.5411223.2%26 W · 86 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3eb…c444backed Yes59c38.79$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.852100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+47.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7658…e770backed No57c37$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.057546.7%35 W · 40 L-5.6wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-6.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No32c36.36$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.681,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6825…836abacked Yes57c36$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.51553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ec5…753abacked Yes79c35.05$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+27.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x710d…02aabacked Yes62c34.49$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.1134067.4%229 W · 111 L+24.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+6.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd04c…c640backed No58c33.02$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1523349.8%116 W · 117 L-15.7wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-27%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc342…c744backed No57c32.54$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.555349.1%26 W · 27 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-10.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbf2e…c770backed Yes40c29.52$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.7139541.3%163 W · 232 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ee7…27e4backed Yes68c28.45$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.09616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.31per pick48cpaid-75.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdfca…645abacked No77c28.34$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8914025.7%36 W · 104 L-9.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-23.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa912…297fbacked No49c25.8$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6263656.1%357 W · 279 L+1.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f55…92c3backed Yes66c25.11$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.641942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-32.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0dbf…1b94backed No43c24.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.75757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+22.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed5b…a76abacked Yes62c24.71$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.3919047.4%90 W · 100 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6526…9c80backed Yes48c23.7$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.3212337.4%46 W · 77 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c38…d6a6backed Yes54c23.66$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.836421.9%14 W · 50 L-5.0wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-36.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed No43c23.26$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1025130.7%77 W · 174 L-9.8wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdad6…0d14backed Yes56c22.64$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.9614829.7%44 W · 104 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ae3…3401backed Yes68c22$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.0427463.9%175 W · 99 L-15.0wins-0.05per pick69cpaid-8.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x73c8…7455backed Yes68c21.35$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.83742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick32cpaid+52%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c1b…d915backed Yes57c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.626344.9%118 W · 145 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4264…1706backed Yes65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$740871.8%293 W · 115 L-0.8wins0.00per pick72cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f40…0477backed Yes77c14.66$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.37250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-35.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.