Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 53°F or below on April 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4d32028b2a331a13c8d64e46bfcc2154299dbd7cebd958dccd593b85870fc05
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $110,922
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $108,227
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $110,922 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d85…6008backed Yes | 0c | 45,086$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.09 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c34…57f6backed Yes | 1c | 2,024$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 1,492$1,114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.41 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc239…6459backed Yes | 7c | 1,127$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.89 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x292a…5d78backed Yes | 28c | 1,084$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.85 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed Yes | 22c | 649.56$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.71 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 25c | 627.35$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.33 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 28c | 553.26$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.56 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 75c | 393.08$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.07 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51b3…16a2backed Yes | 8c | 371.41$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.12 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 23c | 367.07$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.93 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 13c | 361.79$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.68 | 99 | 19.2%19 W · 80 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb697…9c56backed Yes | 24c | 340.74$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.34 | 109 | 24.8%27 W · 82 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 23c | 338.71$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.99 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x216e…fda6backed Yes | 50c | 335.04$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.31 | 71 | 18.3%13 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 37c | 330.06$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.82 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 9c | 313.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.67 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 16c | 312.41$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.08 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5685…3056backed Yes | 14c | 280.98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.81 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94da…25b5backed Yes | 7c | 255.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 370 | 7.8%29 W · 341 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa17…aa48backed Yes | 16c | 250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.92 | 122 | 26.2%32 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 21c | 249.77$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.37 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc907…020fbacked Yes | 32c | 221.82$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.84 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 66c | 221.81$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.37 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fab…775abacked Yes | 9c | 214.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 78 | 9%7 W · 71 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 32c | 211.72$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.98 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 15c | 209.26$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.26 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 24c | 208.15$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.45 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 28c | 201.46$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.02 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d6…e027backed Yes | 9c | 200.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 41c | 194.54$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.19 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed No | 70c | 182.69$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.68 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 6c | 178.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4438…beb2backed No | 77c | 161.55$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.63 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30bd…cecabacked Yes | 32c | 160$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.88 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 16c | 156.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd416…d364backed No | 69c | 156.01$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.91 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 12c | 155.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6032…4245backed Yes | 17c | 145.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01de…f177backed No | 72c | 143.9$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 8c | 139.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 25c | 133$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.76 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 78c | 128.43$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 20c | 128.34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 148 | 29.7%44 W · 104 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 12c | 113.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6f…f414backed Yes | 25c | 112.39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 14c | 106.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc31…63a1backed Yes | 16c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +48%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x343f…bb4dbacked No | 45c | 99.64$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.8 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 67c | 96.83$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.27 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x991e…d5cdbacked Yes | 42c | 87.05$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46b9…b865backed Yes | 27c | 85.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -68%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa16a…57d5backed Yes | 12c | 84.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 72c | 84.37$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.24 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc633…415abacked Yes | 30c | 83.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe64f…ffd6backed Yes | 26c | 80.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked No | 56c | 79.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 14c | 79.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked No | 70c | 75.24$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.59 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ddc…a869backed No | 64c | 75$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.81 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17dd…056abacked Yes | 25c | 71.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 62c | 71.68$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked No | 68c | 71.31$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fd…59aebacked Yes | 20c | 69.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 37c | 67.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 25c | 66.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4066…2407backed No | 52c | 64.91$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.17 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dba…573ebacked Yes | 40c | 64.35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9a…8e18backed Yes | 54c | 57.01$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.07 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 27c | 56.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x809c…4861backed Yes | 19c | 55.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 62c | 54.68$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.92 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 61c | 51.51$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd7…4a8fbacked Yes | 37c | 50.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd088…a3eabacked No | 68c | 50.27$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 79 | 72.2%57 W · 22 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 71c | 49.97$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x600c…8bd4backed No | 70c | 49.28$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 70c | 48.51$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…abd9backed Yes | 24c | 47.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked No | 70c | 41.62$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a0…e1b8backed Yes | 25c | 41.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 72c | 40.54$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 28c | 39.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd9…055dbacked No | 50c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…cc98backed No | 79c | 37.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x784b…f19ebacked Yes | 29c | 35.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed No | 71c | 34.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 35c | 29.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14f4…5944backed No | 50c | 27.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x287f…5ec5backed Yes | 54c | 26.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66c6…c7bfbacked Yes | 50c | 24.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -6.1wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe651…4661backed No | 72c | 17.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 71cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb627…d968backed No | 57c | 17.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80fe…ddd5backed No | 73c | 16.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd9…ad53backed No | 72c | 13.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.93 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 53°F or below on April 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on April 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on April 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.