Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on April 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0dc4f218a0da320b6872a8177692133273d8acaad4f104c2d2ddf7fda8ffee73
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,788
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,064
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,788 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 20c | 1,309$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.82 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 8c | 1,232$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.29 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 7c | 441.46$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.64 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 24c | 416.4$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.28 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 56c | 357.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.13 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 340.71$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.66 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x216e…fda6backed Yes | 27c | 289.79$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.88 | 71 | 18.3%13 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 44c | 266.4$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.17 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 31c | 266.09$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.51 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 6c | 256.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b6…77a7backed Yes | 40c | 235.98$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.98 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 21c | 230.44$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.11 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 35c | 223.53$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.77 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed Yes | 22c | 206.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.49 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 28c | 199.53$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.66 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe58a…e8b4backed Yes | 19c | 195.09$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.81 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 33c | 194.89$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.93 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 29c | 158.24$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.52 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 12c | 154.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 61c | 145.57$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.29 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc239…6459backed No | 56c | 128.99$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.75 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 36c | 125.03$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 72c | 124.26$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.27 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 63c | 100.58$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.95 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 39c | 98.19$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.29 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 72c | 97.11$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 31c | 90.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 39c | 86.88$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.51 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3e…e0f1backed Yes | 13c | 83.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 80 | 13.8%11 W · 69 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed Yes | 18c | 78.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 29c | 68.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 55c | 67.18$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.17 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47f7…0312backed No | 77c | 62.35$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 146 | 63%92 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 69c | 57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 57c | 55.19$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.95 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0057…b1c7backed Yes | 35c | 52.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 148 | 26.4%39 W · 109 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 35c | 47.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb5…3bf4backed No | 62c | 46.41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc174…9d97backed Yes | 43c | 44.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4afa…b3ccbacked Yes | 41c | 43.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 38c | 43.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 29c | 43.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 61c | 40.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 79c | 40.42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 43c | 38.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d6…e027backed No | 65c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d4…fa02backed No | 78c | 32.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59d1…cdc7backed Yes | 37c | 31.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 61c | 29.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2363…4691backed Yes | 37c | 28.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 42c | 27.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…17fbbacked Yes | 42c | 26.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61ca…a1b4backed No | 68c | 26.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 117 | 57.3%67 W · 50 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 64c | 24.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe57d…043abacked No | 60c | 24.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x694d…3ee2backed Yes | 43c | 24.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 60c | 22.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…1075backed No | 63c | 22.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 25 | 80%20 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x34bc…ffa1backed No | 59c | 21.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a79…c875backed No | 65c | 21.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66c6…c7bfbacked No | 72c | 20.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -6.1wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c28…0d2abacked No | 58c | 20.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 74c | 20.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed No | 67c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2097…8063backed No | 61c | 19.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 96 | 68.8%66 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c54…aa45backed No | 77c | 19.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x983d…27f9backed No | 71c | 19.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 69cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed No | 71c | 14.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on April 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 53°F or below on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on April 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on April 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.