Earnings · resolved market
Will Kohls (KSS) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb819eecb4a37e3e629a590f3f90f9bd8483d8ced0f23985cff1ae8ba799825c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,378
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,378 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed No | 30c | 399.42$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.11 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 11c | 352.52$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.62 | 760 | 37.6%286 W · 474 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed No | 15c | 249.25$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.39 | 342 | 37.1%127 W · 215 L | +21.4wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf44…4d45backed Yes | 69c | 232$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.88 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 72cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f1…790bbacked Yes | 60c | 164.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.35 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 21c | 151.69$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.22 | 312 | 29.8%93 W · 219 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x701e…9013backed No | 14c | 139$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1b…1419backed No | 15c | 133.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed No | 11c | 123.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 251 | 25.5%64 W · 187 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed No | 41c | 99.98$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.99 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 13c | 96.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1301…2cf7backed Yes | 63c | 95.31$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.31 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x650b…ebc3backed No | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -59%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 58c | 43.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 189 | 41.3%78 W · 111 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e5…f175backed Yes | 74c | 42.1$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7dd…ff1bbacked Yes | 59c | 30.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2580…f3ecbacked Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd01…cec7backed Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b79…6f9dbacked Yes | 62c | 24.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 262 | 50.4%132 W · 130 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccad…46ecbacked No | 56c | 21.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe58…4acbbacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…671fbacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x488b…8ac0backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked Yes | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.