Mls · resolved market
Will Houston Dynamo vs. Seattle Sounders FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb83d3e6a015e3d6d4d58465fdfdd2f5e1b608de9f73f6a7a63dd2087c053c52f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,354
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,542
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,354 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed No | 73c | 26,478$19,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,168.28 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 27c | 15,997$4,379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,378.62 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 29c | 3,706$1,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,065.98 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36d8…c7c7backed Yes | 34c | 3,150$1,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,081.49 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4bba…cf14backed No | 73c | 2,216$1,614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.92 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 27c | 2,185$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.05 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 66c | 2,132$1,407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$725.27 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Yes | 27c | 1,915$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.97 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 27c | 955.04$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.87 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…44f1backed No | 72c | 911.07$656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.07 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 28c | 706.98$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.85 | 151 | 44.4%67 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 67c | 600$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 413 | 39%161 W · 252 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Yes | 16c | 599.98$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 45c | 594.5$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.01 | 215 | 45.1%97 W · 118 L | -20.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 27c | 586.92$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.38 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Yes | 27c | 555.51$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.99 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -8.1wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 27c | 499.13$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.76 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Yes | 28c | 481.77$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.9 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 27c | 444.88$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.48 | 530 | 46.4%246 W · 284 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89dc…8f42backed Yes | 28c | 442.09$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.79 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 68c | 436$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.37 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 27c | 418.38$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.96 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 28c | 375$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 557 | 50.1%279 W · 278 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 27c | 355.75$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.25 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 27c | 341$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.07 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…d080backed Yes | 28c | 328.14$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.88 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 67c | 314$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…239abacked No | 49c | 301.5$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.49 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.34per pick | 26cpaid | +193.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 27c | 276$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.52 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 28c | 236.92$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.59 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 73c | 231.31$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.57 | 371 | 38.8%144 W · 227 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 62c | 216.72$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.29 | 318 | 34.9%111 W · 207 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed No | 61c | 189.14$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.44 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x482c…4da1backed Yes | 29c | 172.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2488…ff0ebacked No | 60c | 166.74$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.75 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed No | 66c | 162.96$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.86 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 29c | 162.22$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.71 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…eeb8backed No | 73c | 162$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.74 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 78cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…391ebacked No | 50c | 156.11$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.06 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed No | 73c | 121$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.67 | 238 | 58%138 W · 100 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 38c | 100.61$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed No | 66c | 100.56$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 258 | 51.2%132 W · 126 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfccd…02d6backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 70c | 90$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 372 | 49.2%183 W · 189 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9d…7d9ebacked Yes | 28c | 89.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9499…ba9ebacked No | 72c | 75.95$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22d2…82d7backed No | 77c | 71$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Yes | 29c | 67.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Yes | 28c | 65.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf133…4811backed Yes | 27c | 63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08f1…705cbacked Yes | 27c | 62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 54c | 61.07$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.98 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 70c | 60.86$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xede9…3778backed Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b80…8b39backed Yes | 38c | 52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +66%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf87…cc46backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 39c | 42.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.94 | 249 | 20.9%52 W · 197 L | -19.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5a…d48abacked Yes | 28c | 40.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafcd…8014backed Yes | 29c | 36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6caa…4fb3backed Yes | 28c | 35.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8027…cf81backed Yes | 29c | 34.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3fc…6c2dbacked Yes | 58c | 34.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed No | 35c | 34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e0…a433backed Yes | 65c | 30.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb651…4a7cbacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x806b…cccabacked No | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 36c | 28.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 293 | 70.3%206 W · 87 L | +41.2wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 73c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dda…8799backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed No | 71c | 26.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -5.2wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8900…a444backed No | 72c | 21.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed No | 71c | 16.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bec…c707backed No | 71c | 16.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee7…4c1abacked No | 71c | 16.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Houston Dynamo vs. Seattle Sounders FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Houston Dynamo win on 2026-04-04?No won
- Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2026-04-04?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.