NFL · resolved market
Cardinals vs. Seahawks: O/U 44.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb84c42ee4af949db68487fb3056354595c68ae56ca11fda99244fd3155b78f49
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,015
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,842
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,015 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 48c | 2,293$1,106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,105.71 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 1,266$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.25 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3505…f7a3backed Over | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.39 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3a…9ec0backed Over | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.39 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc7…cf77backed Over | 51c | 784.31$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.31 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 53c | 711.22$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.27 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb2…5a60backed Over | 53c | 560$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7552…72cfbacked Under | 47c | 560$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 51c | 222.43$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.97 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Under | 49c | 218.71$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.17 | 240 | 56.7%136 W · 104 L | +19.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Over | 52c | 176.77$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.13 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f1f…0b36backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Under | 49c | 60.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c1…012cbacked Over | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a7…8150backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Under | 50c | 56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 229 | 50.2%115 W · 114 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…aaecbacked Over | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 68cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…5286backed Under | 48c | 42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc761…de5bbacked Over | 50c | 39.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae58…3f01backed Under | 48c | 35.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc286…d936backed Over | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 148 | 48%71 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x868f…4806backed Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cardinals vs. Seahawks: O/U 44.5this page
- 1H Spread: Seahawks (-4.5)Seahawks won
- Cardinals vs. SeahawksSeahawks won
- Cardinals vs. Seahawks: O/U 45.5Over won
- Cardinals vs. Seahawks: O/U 46.5Over won
- Spread: Seahawks (-6.5)Seahawks won
- Spread: Seahawks (-7.5)Seahawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.