NFL · resolved market
Cardinals vs. Seahawks: O/U 45.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc17ad5080d8d69dfb7b36ce457c5bcf3edb3f7d8b81baa55aaf027927c60235
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $94,154
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $94,439
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $94,154 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Over | 47c | 42,398$19,927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,470.79 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Under | 52c | 41,148$21,359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,359.46 | 312 | 40.7%127 W · 185 L | -22.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9249…4f16backed Under | 53c | 24,291$12,874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,874.41 | 176 | 47.7%84 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Over | 48c | 12,563$6,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,532.5 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Over | 48c | 7,552$3,625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,927.09 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4335…fc2fbacked Under | 53c | 4,930$2,613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,612.64 | 111 | 68.5%76 W · 35 L | +18.5wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Over | 48c | 3,210$1,541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,669.21 | 320 | 50.9%163 W · 157 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 49c | 3,200$1,568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,632 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 48c | 2,200$1,052 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,147.89 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 53c | 2,160$1,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,143.21 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 52c | 2,072$1,067 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,067.46 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Over | 48c | 2,059$988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,070.86 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Under | 52c | 1,564$813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$812.6 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…32c2backed Under | 52c | 1,469$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.89 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 49c | 1,368$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.46 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 48c | 854$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.08 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 53c | 726$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.78 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked Over | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 392 | 42.6%167 W · 225 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…f8bebacked Under | 53c | 425.53$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.53 | 194 | 59.3%115 W · 79 L | +15.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Over | 48c | 400$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 266 | 48.9%130 W · 136 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09d1…9d8fbacked Under | 51c | 387.16$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa61d…df1abacked Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 105 | 55.2%58 W · 47 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…606ebacked Over | 47c | 208$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.24 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…93c4backed Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 283 | 37.8%107 W · 176 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Over | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 315 | 40.6%128 W · 187 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Over | 52c | 119.23$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.23 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 48c | 119.23$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.23 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd58b…48e8backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x375e…6c94backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 50c | 93.44$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.36 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed21…a2a1backed Under | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 61 | 65.6%40 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4977…8fd6backed Over | 51c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +6.6wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc761…de5bbacked Over | 48c | 51.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.86 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 297 | 51.5%153 W · 144 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff9…ce7abacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58b…c69bbacked Over | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +92.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x154c…658ebacked Over | 50c | 21.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480a…429fbacked Over | 50c | 20.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 234 | 47.9%112 W · 122 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cardinals vs. Seahawks: O/U 45.5this page
- 1H Spread: Seahawks (-4.5)Seahawks won
- Cardinals vs. SeahawksSeahawks won
- Cardinals vs. Seahawks: O/U 44.5Over won
- Cardinals vs. Seahawks: O/U 46.5Over won
- Spread: Seahawks (-6.5)Seahawks won
- Spread: Seahawks (-7.5)Seahawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.