NFL · resolved market
Spread: Seahawks (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9af7ac4da7429c37c317f7ab4f1524e526a733894a59f85d9f0dfbff64b07e83
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Seahawksof Seahawks, Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $101,137
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $107,317
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,137 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Seahawks | 46c | 31,817$14,557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,259.47 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d3b…c46bbacked Cardinals | 51c | 25,623$13,179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,179.45 | 111 | 45.9%51 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf152…64aabacked Cardinals | 54c | 25,000$13,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,450 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59f4…c1f1backed Seahawks | 49c | 14,467$7,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,378.37 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Seahawks | 48c | 12,727$6,107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,619.54 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Seahawks | 47c | 12,199$5,686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,513.25 | 229 | 50.2%115 W · 114 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Cardinals | 53c | 9,183$4,845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,845 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Cardinals | 53c | 7,766$4,116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,115.98 | 240 | 56.7%136 W · 104 L | +19.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Cardinals | 54c | 7,500$4,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,075 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4b1…a75ebacked Seahawks | 46c | 5,435$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,934.78 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -6.2wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Seahawks | 47c | 5,211$2,449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,761.68 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Cardinals | 55c | 5,000$2,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,750 | 257 | 44.4%114 W · 143 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Seahawks | 48c | 2,263$1,081 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,182.45 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Cardinals | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040 | 284 | 47.5%135 W · 149 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Cardinals | 53c | 1,536$814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$814.27 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Seahawks | 47c | 1,029$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.37 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Cardinals | 54c | 999.99$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Seahawks | 47c | 969$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.82 | 202 | 38.6%78 W · 124 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Cardinals | 54c | 924.99$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.5 | 140 | 35%49 W · 91 L | -12.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Cardinals | 55c | 745.45$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 163 | 46%75 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35de…b39abacked Seahawks | 48c | 729.17$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.17 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaabc…a190backed Cardinals | 53c | 566.04$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Cardinals | 55c | 545.45$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 163 | 51.5%84 W · 79 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e2…5ec0backed Cardinals | 73c | 479.59$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1496…a429backed Seahawks | 45c | 323.45$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.9 | 274 | 54.7%150 W · 124 L | +13.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9c…45e0backed Seahawks | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Cardinals | 54c | 190$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Cardinals | 54c | 169$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.26 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x375e…6c94backed Seahawks | 48c | 120$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.7 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb6…25eabacked Cardinals | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Seahawks | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Seahawks | 48c | 81.5$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.65 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc64…6632backed Cardinals | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0078…bca0backed Cardinals | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 227 | 45.4%103 W · 124 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x709f…635abacked Seahawks | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Seahawks | 48c | 31.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.23 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Cardinals | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd47b…c715backed Cardinals | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | -8.3wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3513…c19dbacked Seahawks | 48c | 25.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seahawks (-7.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Seahawks (-4.5)Seahawks won
- Cardinals vs. SeahawksSeahawks won
- Cardinals vs. Seahawks: O/U 44.5Over won
- Cardinals vs. Seahawks: O/U 45.5Over won
- Cardinals vs. Seahawks: O/U 46.5Over won
- Spread: Seahawks (-6.5)Seahawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.