Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8578a95f3a841720d8508e5817dc210d9a0e392b516d432caeeec3a154280d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,834
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,995
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,834 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 9c | 782.4$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 58c | 732.46$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.47 | 2,506 | 69.7%1,747 W · 759 L | +78.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes | 41c | 613.92$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.92 | 172 | 24.4%42 W · 130 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 59c | 351.47$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.59 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 58c | 330.88$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.4 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 8c | 308.69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 10c | 286.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 1,014 | 51.6%523 W · 491 L | +108.5wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 16c | 270.14$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.94 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 61c | 252.39$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.45 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 38c | 250.68$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.12 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 42c | 244.82$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.86 | 265 | 56.2%149 W · 116 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 59c | 203$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.77 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 577 | 44.9%259 W · 318 L | +37.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 60c | 200$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.11 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72da…a89ebacked No | 20c | 193.35$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.51 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 43c | 176.3$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.89 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1516…9f4cbacked Yes | 60c | 169.97$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.79 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 44c | 169.17$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.34 | 668 | 34.3%229 W · 439 L | +37.7wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 59c | 169.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 44c | 161.83$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.65 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 39c | 155.34$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.89 | 631 | 22.5%142 W · 489 L | -29.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 36c | 146.72$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.14 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec90…fd41backed No | 26c | 142$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.92 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 44c | 140.25$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.54 | 254 | 29.1%74 W · 180 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…4e62backed No | 48c | 136.46$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 58c | 135.75$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.24 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 20c | 120.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 3,201 | 53.6%1,716 W · 1,485 L | -101.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed Yes | 48c | 116.45$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.1 | 279 | 44.4%124 W · 155 L | -14.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 43c | 116$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.07 | 1,246 | 30%374 W · 872 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked No | 45c | 114.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.74 | 321 | 49.8%160 W · 161 L | +17.6wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc39d…adafbacked Yes | 42c | 107.29$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.23 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 74c | 100.02$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.67 | 1,335 | 50.9%680 W · 655 L | -35.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 751 | 38.2%287 W · 464 L | +18.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 221 | 16.7%37 W · 184 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 40c | 95.67$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.4 | 175 | 38.9%68 W · 107 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd456…63a4backed Yes | 42c | 95.24$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.24 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 40c | 90$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.8 | 547 | 38.6%211 W · 336 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 60c | 89.9$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.86 | 481 | 40.3%194 W · 287 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e75…0f1ebacked Yes | 41c | 87.81$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked Yes | 40c | 87.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 107 | 35.5%38 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 53c | 85$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.95 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 39c | 75.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.28 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d60…d955backed No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 59c | 67.27$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,417 | 65.2%924 W · 493 L | +59.7wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 78c | 67.25$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 44c | 66$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.7 | 855 | 35.7%305 W · 550 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 58c | 62.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.34 | 1,158 | 57.1%661 W · 497 L | -45.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 19c | 60.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a43…26babacked Yes | 42c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 114 | 44.7%51 W · 63 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26a4…5a9cbacked Yes | 79c | 57.83$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced2…0d6bbacked No | 61c | 56.62$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.37 | 166 | 68.1%113 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 45c | 52.85$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.85 | 212 | 51.4%109 W · 103 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x546a…1988backed No | 51c | 52.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.62 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 22c | 51.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…df65backed No | 52c | 51.07$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.71 | 207 | 36.7%76 W · 131 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.05 | 625 | 39.7%248 W · 377 L | +28.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 59c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 901 | 55.7%502 W · 399 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3,032 | 31.3%949 W · 2,083 L | +39.5wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb87e…acd3backed No | 51c | 44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -7.8wins | -0.46per pick | 52cpaid | -91.6%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7a…11e8backed Yes | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…7ae6backed No | 59c | 42.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 108 | 63.9%69 W · 39 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf512…0985backed No | 55c | 42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 60cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 55c | 41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 1,912 | 55.5%1,062 W · 850 L | +6.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d7c…93b2backed No | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 27c | 39.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…29afbacked No | 61c | 39.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 42c | 37.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 32c | 35.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 34.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.79 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 46c | 34.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.51 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0018…83a4backed Yes | 58c | 34.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 62c | 33.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 162 | 52.5%85 W · 77 L | -14.5wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 61c | 33.62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 49c | 33.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 386 | 52.8%204 W · 182 L | -25.5wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 58c | 30.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 575 | 59.7%343 W · 232 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc04…6f04backed Yes | 66c | 30.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 61c | 30.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 1,421 | 31.1%442 W · 979 L | -93.8wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80db…4a73backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,691 | 47.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L | +48.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…08f6backed No | 58c | 29.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 53c | 29.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 52c | 29.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 447 | 60%268 W · 179 L | +18.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x402f…6d99backed Yes | 69c | 29.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7687…27a6backed Yes | 38c | 29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 66c | 28.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 260 | 38.5%100 W · 160 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 40c | 28.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 1,178 | 40.6%478 W · 700 L | +17.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 62c | 27.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 621 | 46.2%287 W · 334 L | +40.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…5839backed Yes | 54c | 27.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 53c | 26.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd846…b233backed Yes | 43c | 26.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 58c | 26.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 1,367 | 69.2%946 W · 421 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x282c…ddeabacked Yes | 55c | 25.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 56c | 25.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 290 | 51.4%149 W · 141 L | +25.4wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed No | 61c | 24.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 172 | 62.8%108 W · 64 L | +14.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x336e…71bcbacked No | 55c | 24.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf743…63e1backed Yes | 42c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e58…93e0backed Yes | 71c | 23.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbc…d2e1backed No | 48c | 23.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C or below on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.