Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on August 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d87015192bfab7eb0773c5dc73c9b6549a0cc040236d73e6c421cd8394c8ef4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,082
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,010
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,082 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 33c | 781.09$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.2 | 609 | 36.8%224 W · 385 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72da…a89ebacked Yes | 11c | 457.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.41 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 376.36$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.17 | 8,337 | 49.2%4,098 W · 4,239 L | +271.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf28c…cdf8backed Yes | 30c | 357.75$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.59 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 67c | 333.44$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.11 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 67c | 322.23$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.45 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0c…ef83backed No | 67c | 277.28$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.4 | 190 | 46.3%88 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 79c | 247.2$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.89 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 76c | 224.24$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.19 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked Yes | 36c | 207.23$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.88 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1b…6e41backed Yes | 19c | 200.72$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.76 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 33c | 198.93$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.54 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 68c | 172.42$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.17 | 2,506 | 69.7%1,747 W · 759 L | +78.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 31c | 170$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.15 | 967 | 33.3%322 W · 645 L | +27.8wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…82f5backed Yes | 29c | 152.39$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.92 | 105 | 32.4%34 W · 71 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 26c | 150.36$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.59 | 208 | 51.9%108 W · 100 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 14c | 148.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 921 | 45.6%420 W · 501 L | -29.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 66c | 142.66$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.93 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 23c | 130.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 632 | 47.3%299 W · 333 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fad…242fbacked No | 79c | 126.01$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 33c | 112.53$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.13 | 580 | 53.4%310 W · 270 L | -26.4wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed Yes | 35c | 111$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.12 | 525 | 67%352 W · 173 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 68c | 108.89$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.84 | 631 | 22.5%142 W · 489 L | -29.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x550e…94dbbacked Yes | 21c | 107.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +7.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc66b…46bebacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 751 | 38.2%287 W · 464 L | +18.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3dd…81b2backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cad…c773backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.1 | 89 | 56.2%50 W · 39 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 456 | 30%137 W · 319 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 76c | 99$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.71 | 620 | 44%273 W · 347 L | +25.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 24c | 98.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 419 | 27%113 W · 306 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 17c | 87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 3,139 | 49.6%1,558 W · 1,581 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 32c | 84.54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,080 | 38%410 W · 670 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 19c | 79.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 278 | 45.7%127 W · 151 L | +13.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd90b…da7cbacked Yes | 25c | 75.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 32c | 75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 2,757 | 29.7%819 W · 1,938 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e75…0f1ebacked Yes | 33c | 70.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf225…42e0backed Yes | 18c | 70.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 129 | 45.7%59 W · 70 L | +8.9wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 71c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a43…26babacked Yes | 22c | 67.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 114 | 44.7%51 W · 63 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 44c | 66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 855 | 35.7%305 W · 550 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 23c | 65.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 588 | 50.9%299 W · 289 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…b24cbacked Yes | 20c | 57.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 153 | 27.5%42 W · 111 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x462e…a612backed No | 78c | 53.75$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 73c | 53.03$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 69c | 52.7$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 767 | 27%207 W · 560 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 75c | 52.19$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 2,250 | 57%1,282 W · 968 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 26c | 50.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 484 | 36.6%177 W · 307 L | -24.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x897e…7bbdbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa703…6a73backed Yes | 25c | 49.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 76c | 47.14$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 3,649 | 53.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L | +83.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced2…0d6bbacked No | 67c | 46.32$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 166 | 68.1%113 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…7ae6backed No | 70c | 44.69$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 108 | 63.9%69 W · 39 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3057…bf7bbacked No | 76c | 41.59$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 56c | 41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 1,912 | 55.5%1,062 W · 850 L | +6.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb576…d959backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2844…5aa1backed Yes | 27c | 39.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1d…56a3backed No | 65c | 39.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 75c | 38.28$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 2,283 | 58.3%1,331 W · 952 L | +85.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 74c | 37.09$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 69c | 35.45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 32c | 35.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1,178 | 40.6%478 W · 700 L | +17.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 254 | 40.9%104 W · 150 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 1,417 | 65.2%924 W · 493 L | +59.7wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 73c | 26.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked No | 77c | 23.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 181 | 57.5%104 W · 77 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 76c | 22.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 69c | 21.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 1,367 | 69.2%946 W · 421 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…73eebacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 86 | 66.3%57 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04c6…ec7abacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 2,434 | 79.4%1,933 W · 501 L | +99.7wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6024…8d26backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 72c | 17.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 71c | 16.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on August 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C or below on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.