CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: M8 (-1.5) vs RED Canids (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb86be4bc1507c2e804fc9abbb0dccc8a10ec2844d6e8015777eb2d13d4748c10
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- RED Canidsof Gentle Mates, RED Canids
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,597
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,517
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,597 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaebf…e1cabacked Gentle Mates | 40c | 6,262$2,519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,519.4 | 359 | 40.4%145 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff80…9b4dbacked RED Canids | 60c | 4,565$2,739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,826 | 325 | 52.6%171 W · 154 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e5…d034backed RED Canids | 60c | 2,055$1,233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$822 | 130 | 44.6%58 W · 72 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7645…3117backed RED Canids | 59c | 1,839$1,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$753.86 | 716 | 45.9%329 W · 387 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48b8…4b69backed RED Canids | 60c | 1,666$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.38 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed Gentle Mates | 40c | 1,157$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.72 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -24%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed4d…6a0bbacked Gentle Mates | 40c | 964$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.6 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked RED Canids | 60c | 777$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.8 | 1,144 | 49.4%565 W · 579 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd705…fb7cbacked Gentle Mates | 40c | 574.83$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.93 | 325 | 36%117 W · 208 L | -11.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1311…d450backed RED Canids | 60c | 480$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ea…59a1backed Gentle Mates | 42c | 455.73$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.08 | 192 | 38%73 W · 119 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb53a…e694backed Gentle Mates | 43c | 433.08$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.41 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6179…6f80backed RED Canids | 60c | 397.92$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.21 | 503 | 40.2%202 W · 301 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972f…65bdbacked Gentle Mates | 41c | 355.88$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.66 | 391 | 57.5%225 W · 166 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7069…325bbacked Gentle Mates | 40c | 289.2$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.68 | 946 | 45.8%433 W · 513 L | +18.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked RED Canids | 64c | 241.37$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.34 | 3,096 | 48.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L | +135.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04b…3ce0backed Gentle Mates | 40c | 241$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.4 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed RED Canids | 60c | 233$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.2 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x675c…4341backed Gentle Mates | 36c | 194.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 187 | 48.1%90 W · 97 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Gentle Mates | 39c | 187.64$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.18 | 608 | 48%292 W · 316 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4dd…4f27backed RED Canids | 57c | 145$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.35 | 509 | 47%239 W · 270 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d56…52b1backed Gentle Mates | 40c | 125.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.13 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…b497backed Gentle Mates | 40c | 123.39$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.36 | 183 | 52.5%96 W · 87 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1c…2a3ebacked Gentle Mates | 40c | 120.5$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 184 | 43.5%80 W · 104 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4969…6d77backed Gentle Mates | 40c | 120.5$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 227 | 34.4%78 W · 149 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Gentle Mates | 39c | 98.34$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.33 | 1,281 | 37.8%484 W · 797 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Gentle Mates | 66c | 84.21$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.21 | 1,378 | 45.2%623 W · 755 L | +17.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe601…84ecbacked Gentle Mates | 44c | 62.82$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.64 | 488 | 45.7%223 W · 265 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0b…4db0backed Gentle Mates | 41c | 58.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 123 | 55.3%68 W · 55 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52cd…85fbbacked Gentle Mates | 40c | 49.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 365 | 41.9%153 W · 212 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97c7…37adbacked Gentle Mates | 40c | 48.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 667 | 53.1%354 W · 313 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa02b…70d6backed RED Canids | 31c | 36.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 178 | 57.3%102 W · 76 L | +27.9wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +47%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xdf26…0416backed Gentle Mates | 40c | 36.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93dc…3728backed Gentle Mates | 40c | 32.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 499 | 47.5%237 W · 262 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked RED Canids | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 472 | 60%283 W · 189 L | +31.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2920…a1d3backed RED Canids | 61c | 29.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 265 | 64.2%170 W · 95 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa750…0d0fbacked RED Canids | 60c | 27.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 185 | 49.2%91 W · 94 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked RED Canids | 56c | 17.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 1,157 | 48.2%558 W · 599 L | +3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a6…2a95backed RED Canids | 61c | 17.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: M8 (-1.5) vs RED Canids (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: RED Canids vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - IEM Rio Group ARED Canids won
- Counter-Strike: RED Canids vs Gentle Mates - Map 1 WinnerRED Canids won
- Counter-Strike: RED Canids vs Gentle Mates - Map 2 WinnerGentle Mates won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.