TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: RED Canids vs Gentle Mates - Map 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Gentle Matesof RED Canids, Gentle Mates
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$231,098
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$325,233

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $231,098 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x26f8…3452backed Gentle Mates77c69,887$53,813 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,074.0719949.7%99 W · 100 L-9.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+14.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked RED Canids23c24,593$5,653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,652.523,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x56c9…0d9ebacked Gentle Mates78c23,822$18,665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,157.622468.8%154 W · 70 L-8.2wins-0.04per pick72cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed RED Canids21c13,887$2,847 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,847.132,06641.5%858 W · 1,208 L-49.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed RED Canids23c8,017$1,827 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,826.6239248.7%191 W · 201 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-12.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed RED Canids23c5,652$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,299.8388746.7%414 W · 473 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed RED Canids23c5,403$1,241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,241.0921351.2%109 W · 104 L-1.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed RED Canids19c5,081$962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$962.451,08854.2%590 W · 498 L+39.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed RED Canids21c4,571$963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$963.3749646.6%231 W · 265 L+1.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked RED Canids25c4,552$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1401,05449%516 W · 538 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Gentle Mates68c3,527$2,403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,124.312,32851.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L+92.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked RED Canids20c2,893$581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581.121,25646.7%587 W · 669 L+17.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked RED Canids23c2,849$655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$655.171,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked RED Canids36c2,739$985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$985.035,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x69bf…0c5dbacked RED Canids34c2,568$873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$873.1517148%82 W · 89 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked RED Canids23c2,138$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.681,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0cd9…2a08backed RED Canids34c1,694$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575.9221528.8%62 W · 153 L-10.1wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-19.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a71…e454backed RED Canids29c1,663$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.6424944.6%111 W · 138 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Gentle Mates72c1,620$1,169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450.674,22849.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L+59.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked RED Canids19c1,603$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.622,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked Gentle Mates71c1,493$1,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427.333,22551.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L+88.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c93…33d5backed RED Canids38c1,395$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.8748437.6%182 W · 302 L+13.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+42%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x490a…1d4bbacked Gentle Mates66c1,388$916 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$471.7929235.6%104 W · 188 L-11.0wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-15.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked RED Canids22c1,279$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.0640140.6%163 W · 238 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked RED Canids34c1,180$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.3461228.9%177 W · 435 L-9.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked RED Canids23c1,060$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.7240253.7%216 W · 186 L+25.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+0.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked RED Canids23c1,008$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.845,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed RED Canids33c998.55$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.5246749.7%232 W · 235 L-12.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked Gentle Mates69c977.58$672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.931,39848.4%676 W · 722 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Gentle Mates75c868.01$648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.826,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd80…5ef4backed RED Canids23c829.39$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.767650%38 W · 38 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed RED Canids31c804.98$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.545,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae4c…dcb9backed RED Canids23c763.04$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.513743.8%60 W · 77 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed RED Canids23c760.45$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.455,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Gentle Mates65c749.7$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.771,08150.9%550 W · 531 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x255f…cd91backed Gentle Mates68c715$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.88947.2%42 W · 47 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed RED Canids30c706.92$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.831,37845.2%623 W · 755 L+17.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb53a…e694backed RED Canids34c706.18$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.113238.6%51 W · 81 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed RED Canids25c675.58$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.991,10950.5%560 W · 549 L-3.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed RED Canids32c622.46$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.3751252.3%268 W · 244 L+16.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed Gentle Mates72c515.79$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.978450%42 W · 42 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56de…bc32backed Gentle Mates66c499.99$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1705349.1%26 W · 27 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Gentle Mates64c497.92$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.4746149.9%230 W · 231 L-1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x307d…9163backed RED Canids34c480.2$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.2722365%145 W · 78 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed RED Canids27c443.32$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.784,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6265…c6c1backed Gentle Mates64c415.59$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.615100%5 W · 0 L+2.3wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+93.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x5f22…0fb4backed RED Canids23c414.7$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.3813350.4%67 W · 66 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf702…683dbacked RED Canids33c389.85$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.65250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2555…5254backed RED Canids26c363.04$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.794042.5%17 W · 23 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-28.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked RED Canids23c357.75$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.921,77959.1%1,052 W · 727 L+104.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Gentle Mates64c324$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.9114955%82 W · 67 L+9.3wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6c04…a593backed RED Canids24c320.67$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.5718426.1%48 W · 136 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Gentle Mates67c315.27$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.037,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x86c8…fc02backed RED Canids27c303.95$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.155950.3%281 W · 278 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8849…9a83backed RED Canids35c288.28$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.5653850.6%272 W · 266 L-15.6wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Gentle Mates68c259.6$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.432,60452.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L+98.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed Gentle Mates75c255.29$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.1818837.2%70 W · 118 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa272…797abacked Gentle Mates68c250.71$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.064841.7%20 W · 28 L-3.7wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-18.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xed52…2dbdbacked Gentle Mates67c248.71$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.0713553.3%72 W · 63 L+7.6wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe4e5…d034backed RED Canids33c236$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.8813044.6%58 W · 72 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c18…8ec1backed RED Canids7c224.19$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.691631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-28.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf438…9901backed RED Canids22c197.52$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.45475%3 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.37per pick38cpaid+83.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0311…f80ebacked RED Canids8c181.31$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0218126.5%48 W · 133 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick22cpaid+26.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x12bc…bf2fbacked RED Canids28c150.44$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.2437441.7%156 W · 218 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf37…8b49backed Gentle Mates63c146.96$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.386154.1%33 W · 28 L+4.8wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+7.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa89b…87a6backed Gentle Mates67c146.3$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.2811767.5%79 W · 38 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b1c…2a3ebacked RED Canids34c142.93$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.618443.5%80 W · 104 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8393…f0aebacked RED Canids34c139.52$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.44633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-24.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ee9…20a2backed RED Canids31c133.41$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.446835.3%24 W · 44 L-8.7wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-35.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3e6d…2671backed RED Canids27c128.58$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.0876248.4%369 W · 393 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ad…be4ebacked Gentle Mates67c125.46$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.425651.2%131 W · 125 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0c69…2b8dbacked RED Canids23c124.78$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.727556.7%156 W · 119 L+14.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6bb5…a518backed RED Canids22c120.82$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.735042%21 W · 29 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x819b…6a57backed RED Canids18c120$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.152913.8%4 W · 25 L-3.0wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-44.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0b45…ac9fbacked RED Canids35c114.58$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.338942.4%165 W · 224 L-15.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a73…a9c8backed Gentle Mates67c109.72$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.2169635.3%246 W · 450 L-49.3wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-17.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed RED Canids33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3360848%292 W · 316 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed Gentle Mates75c99.49$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.8757358.8%337 W · 236 L+16.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfcfe…d420backed Gentle Mates67c98.02$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.3568753.9%370 W · 317 L-21.6wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Gentle Mates68c96.32$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.752,06150.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L-18.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Gentle Mates67c96.32$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.021,71052.3%895 W · 815 L-73.4wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x595c…3b03backed RED Canids25c96.12$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8715157%86 W · 65 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed RED Canids27c91.75$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.892,10216.8%353 W · 1,749 L-286.5wins-0.14per pick30cpaid-47.2%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xd11d…5656backed Gentle Mates64c90$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.47561.3%46 W · 29 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd96a…d8cebacked RED Canids18c81.78$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.888515.3%13 W · 72 L-4.6wins-0.05per pick21cpaid+15.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Gentle Mates70c80.06$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.021,54733.9%524 W · 1,023 L-73.4wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-33.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x87ed…b497backed Gentle Mates64c78.27$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.1818352.5%96 W · 87 L+0.6wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73a2…3b68backed RED Canids25c72.82$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.195849.8%477 W · 481 L-17.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-10.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8381…a304backed Gentle Mates67c70.63$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.3112273.8%90 W · 32 L+10.0wins+0.08per pick66cpaid+11.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x354b…3322backed RED Canids28c68.93$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.151546.7%7 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5471…a236backed RED Canids39c59.73$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5525042.8%107 W · 143 L-9.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb67a…cd3abacked RED Canids23c59.6$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.71520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick52cpaid-60%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2c78…aad1backed Gentle Mates67c58.52$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.3138456.3%216 W · 168 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x34d5…e0c1backed Gentle Mates67c58.52$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.3136555.9%204 W · 161 L+13.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+2.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c39…442dbacked RED Canids26c57.2$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1427015.2%41 W · 229 L-41.9wins-0.16per pick31cpaid-54.7%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x4177…a2b4backed RED Canids34c56.49$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.211,24841.3%516 W · 732 L+5.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0c2…b14dbacked RED Canids32c52.57$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5859647.3%282 W · 314 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-7.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa557…6e77backed Gentle Mates65c50.37$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.6325248.8%123 W · 129 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6117…2fafbacked Gentle Mates77c47.78$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.999856.1%55 W · 43 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6c3…a6e8backed Gentle Mates66c45.1$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.3326249.2%129 W · 133 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.