Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb871305f0308920df228c1ecf1b11f53e36e52b468ccddc8b7a98d7f4c228c19
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,873
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,632
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,873 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 21c | 301.39$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.57 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 63c | 249.45$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.37 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 77c | 193.46$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.96 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 161.21$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.75 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 150.22$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.68 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 40c | 150$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 43c | 147.48$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.78 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 15c | 139.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 57c | 138.29$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.36 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 33c | 125.78$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.58 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 37c | 117$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.3 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 64c | 116.65$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.25 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1a36…f270backed Yes | 25c | 108.1$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.57 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd503…325fbacked Yes | 38c | 105.26$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.26 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 60c | 100.79$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.58 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 52c | 100.41$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.57 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 45c | 92.71$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.74 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 23c | 86.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 60c | 83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 61c | 81.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 45c | 79.41$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.31 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 75.25$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.91 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 75c | 75$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.25 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 31c | 71.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 37c | 71$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.73 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 36c | 68.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe32a…a7f9backed Yes | 79c | 67.34$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 62c | 65$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116a…a2f2backed Yes | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 41c | 61.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.15 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 48c | 61.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 49c | 58.79$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 34c | 57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.41 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 49c | 56.92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 39c | 53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.24 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 55c | 51.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.45 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 51c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.68 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 62c | 46.26$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 49c | 40.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfad0…3a91backed No | 64c | 39.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.23per pick | 58cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3c16…d262backed No | 64c | 39.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 36c | 38.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed Yes | 39c | 37.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.82 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09bc…f52abacked Yes | 37c | 35.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.41 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 60c | 34.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa957…7638backed Yes | 75c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 61c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 61c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 63c | 31.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 49c | 29.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…8809backed Yes | 78c | 29.28$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 67c | 27.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 56c | 27.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 188 | 62.8%118 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5140…529dbacked Yes | 50c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.44per pick | 64cpaid | -60%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…b24abacked No | 62c | 20.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 63c | 20.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 62c | 20.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 63c | 20.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 62c | 19.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on July 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on July 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.