Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 81°F or below on May 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb87eca02ee07bb1eae3a445ad3c38b9c1ed3ee0038b36b845ea61baadc43359a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,505
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,997
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,505 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 1c | 1,235$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 16c | 450.34$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.32 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 10c | 366.71$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.04 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 77c | 366.01$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.62 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes | 78c | 339.32$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.41 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 14c | 310.29$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.24 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked Yes | 73c | 278.39$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.11 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 19c | 222.24$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.76 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 78c | 214.59$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.76 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed Yes | 13c | 209.7$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.72 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd5…4390backed Yes | 79c | 209.59$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe84…20e0backed No | 68c | 195.67$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.13 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 50c | 189.94$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.39 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 24c | 172.86$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.19 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9008…09f0backed Yes | 21c | 170.28$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.28 | 119 | 39.5%47 W · 72 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa76…a43cbacked No | 12c | 160.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 80c | 134.56$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.59 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 30c | 133.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.24 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 32c | 132.15$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.26 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 48c | 125.53$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.7 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 64c | 117.27$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.98 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 45c | 106.17$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.04 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed No | 42c | 94$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.18 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed Yes | 64c | 89.08$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.89 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.88 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 77c | 77.41$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.88 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 52c | 76.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.77 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 74c | 76.16$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe14a…c6c8backed No | 42c | 71.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 76c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed Yes | 34c | 67.38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.39 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 65c | 58.72$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.34 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 42c | 50.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed No | 23c | 50.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…d3a5backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 33c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 48c | 46.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe4…e7f5backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 41c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 31c | 44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 175 | 70.3%123 W · 52 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa139…5bc2backed Yes | 65c | 42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec87…43f9backed No | 76c | 36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 39c | 33.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d91…f3f3backed Yes | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaafb…e81ebacked Yes | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 152 | 75.7%115 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 46c | 29.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…aa1ebacked Yes | 77c | 26.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 77c | 24.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x673f…727bbacked No | 63c | 23.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 67c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a35…94eebacked Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 66c | 19.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b5…4768backed Yes | 79c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabea…3257backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 64 | 73.4%47 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 75cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d34…cd67backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked Yes | 75c | 14.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be 81°F or below on May 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on May 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.