Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on August 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8b0f53099db7f35790ffa87601a223e70ec5e7f9cdfd53f14b4eb43a13369d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,460
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,835
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,460 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4127…a8cebacked No | 77c | 521.75$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.85 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3fad…1a08backed No | 66c | 319.77$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.77 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 48c | 267.56$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.13 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 204.14$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.52 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 64c | 172.35$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.36 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 64c | 150.25$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.29 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 52c | 149.01$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.81 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x880a…308ebacked Yes | 61c | 139.23$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.42 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb4…3acbbacked Yes | 9c | 132.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 114.98$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.74 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 99.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x155d…a4f4backed Yes | 38c | 90$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 35c | 66.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0db9…a4a8backed Yes | 45c | 64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -16.6wins | -0.29per pick | 61cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 27-0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 45c | 60.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 43c | 58.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.17 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 48c | 58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.91 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 40c | 54.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.67 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…2002backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 39c | 46.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 31c | 45.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 55c | 44.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 60c | 43.44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.17 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 41c | 36.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 36c | 36.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 64c | 35.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 38c | 32.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa210…a235backed Yes | 51c | 32.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.21per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 55c | 28.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…4d7bbacked No | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 183 | 68.9%126 W · 57 L | +25.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 59c | 24.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 43c | 24.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 77c | 24.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5192…df62backed No | 56c | 23.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed Yes | 44c | 23.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9518…9e0cbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -7.5wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc1…5f5bbacked Yes | 54c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 66cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 62c | 16.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7854…3396backed No | 80c | 14.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.87 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 80cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on August 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on August 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on August 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.