Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on August 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe425590c627afe381b649b92cdea5872d5081868f76380debffe9ab1fa76e577
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,551
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,333
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,551 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 63c | 580.1$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.67 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 393.3$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 40c | 326.95$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.01 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 9c | 310.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 40c | 262.09$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.21 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 35c | 252.92$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.83 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 35c | 202.86$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.19 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 63c | 199.98$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.99 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 21c | 179.22$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.37 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb89b…1a22backed Yes | 61c | 172.14$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.64 | 97 | 83.5%81 W · 16 L | +26.5wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 11c | 162.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed No | 65c | 140$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.74 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 60c | 128.94$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.24 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…9d4cbacked Yes | 79c | 100.5$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…82f5backed Yes | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 21c | 97.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 61c | 80.67$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.42 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5f…1a13backed Yes | 41c | 73.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.29 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -7.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 74c | 71.39$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 41c | 70.91$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.81 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 47c | 58.18$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.94 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 39c | 53.74$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.78 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 45c | 49.15$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.15 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 30c | 48.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 51c | 45.79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.67 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 68c | 44.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 37c | 43.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 42c | 43.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.15 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x975d…7461backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe384…73f6backed No | 64c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 36c | 39.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 38c | 38.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.03 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 37c | 35.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.48 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 33.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 32.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e0…e538backed Yes | 42c | 32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 52c | 31.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked No | 65c | 30.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 59c | 29.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 36c | 29.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.98 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked Yes | 39c | 27.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 62c | 27.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 70c | 26.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 79c | 25.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 47c | 21.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb4…f3a4backed No | 65c | 21.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 77c | 18.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…8c58backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 65c | 15.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 67c | 15.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xa922…9a52backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on August 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on August 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.