Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: FLC (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8c7f4be2363ae2052f78a5d26ce6fcc9cfb54aa4abcb266ebe28868d3ee9dfd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Liquidof Team Falcons, Team Liquid
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,527
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,504
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,527 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x928d…5069backed Team Liquid | 69c | 712.58$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.5 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5537…f9c8backed Team Liquid | 68c | 430.5$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.76 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Team Falcons | 31c | 330$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.3 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x194f…c849backed Team Falcons | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 156 | 42.9%67 W · 89 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b94…9c0dbacked Team Falcons | 32c | 175.06$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.02 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9166…b479backed Team Falcons | 28c | 140$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f41…547cbacked Team Liquid | 72c | 140$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 131 | 42.7%56 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc2…f593backed Team Falcons | 32c | 80.28$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.69 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 61cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc13b…701ebacked Team Falcons | 30c | 64.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc21b…36bbbacked Team Liquid | 70c | 64.29$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 98 | 66.3%65 W · 33 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0633…355abacked Team Falcons | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 116 | 43.1%50 W · 66 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x101f…b386backed Team Falcons | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 321 | 54.8%176 W · 145 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Team Falcons | 26c | 60.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 268 | 46.6%125 W · 143 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfce8…2686backed Team Liquid | 74c | 60.81$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 145 | 66.2%96 W · 49 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe180…889bbacked Team Falcons | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 124 | 56.5%70 W · 54 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28af…05f5backed Team Falcons | 32c | 40.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -5.3wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: FLC (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5)this page
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO5) - 1win Essence PlayoffsTeam Liquid won
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 1 WinnerTeam Liquid won
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 2 WinnerTeam Liquid won
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 3 WinnerTeam Liquid won
- Game Handicap: FLC (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5)Team Liquid won
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.