Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: FLC (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab1dccb110b03437da2b1798141d57318bb6f5bea1e69ccf8070c95356236fef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Liquidof Team Falcons, Team Liquid
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,098
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,120
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,098 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc69b…2076backed Team Falcons | 62c | 6,032$3,730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,730.24 | 188 | 44.7%84 W · 104 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb496…1f45backed Team Liquid | 38c | 6,000$2,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,719.99 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +4.1wins | +0.19per pick | 40cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Team Falcons | 59c | 5,000$2,970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,970 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b97…8d30backed Team Liquid | 41c | 3,548$1,455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,093.32 | 362 | 48.6%176 W · 186 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf60…a6f5backed Team Falcons | 60c | 3,500$2,103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,103.43 | 119 | 53.8%64 W · 55 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94cb…64e3backed Team Liquid | 40c | 2,310$924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,386.26 | 188 | 30.9%58 W · 130 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed Team Liquid | 40c | 2,004$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,204.12 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc581…0f24backed Team Falcons | 55c | 910.03$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.59 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e04…28a9backed Team Liquid | 39c | 775.79$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.23 | 176 | 51.1%90 W · 86 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Team Liquid | 51c | 721.17$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.04 | 438 | 60.5%265 W · 173 L | +44.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Team Liquid | 39c | 648.35$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.24 | 108 | 53.7%58 W · 50 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked Team Liquid | 40c | 632.75$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.38 | 100 | 40%40 W · 60 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x885a…e1e3backed Team Falcons | 60c | 552.64$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.11 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4141…cffcbacked Team Liquid | 40c | 500$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabe5…d99abacked Team Falcons | 61c | 500$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.76 | 386 | 49.5%191 W · 195 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Team Liquid | 38c | 500$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.63 | 268 | 46.6%125 W · 143 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc13b…701ebacked Team Falcons | 58c | 499.99$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ed…9bb9backed Team Liquid | 42c | 469.65$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.08 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x07fa…f5cdbacked Team Liquid | 45c | 442.54$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.49 | 462 | 40.7%188 W · 274 L | +15.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f8…e0b1backed Team Liquid | 41c | 398.97$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.62 | 263 | 43%113 W · 150 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Team Falcons | 59c | 388.84$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.36 | 935 | 46.4%434 W · 501 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x194f…c849backed Team Falcons | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 156 | 42.9%67 W · 89 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd2…f5c4backed Team Falcons | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 78 | 64.1%50 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x070e…1708backed Team Falcons | 61c | 319.64$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…d74bbacked Team Liquid | 44c | 299.99$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.99 | 210 | 45.7%96 W · 114 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0b…2debbacked Team Falcons | 56c | 282.86$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.06 | 195 | 47.7%93 W · 102 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12d3…42e4backed Team Liquid | 42c | 261.9$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.9 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…4fa2backed Team Liquid | 44c | 231.56$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.73 | 536 | 34%182 W · 354 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2d…fb60backed Team Falcons | 62c | 200$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 504 | 44%222 W · 282 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4cf…0e95backed Team Liquid | 43c | 200$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Team Falcons | 28c | 167.96$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.03 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3e…7befbacked Team Falcons | 61c | 165$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.65 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cd…3ca2backed Team Falcons | 61c | 165$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.65 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -7.6wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3296…c186backed Team Falcons | 57c | 140.63$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | +7.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Team Falcons | 28c | 138.75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Team Falcons | 57c | 132.35$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.44 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8849…9a83backed Team Liquid | 44c | 113.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.78 | 106 | 59.4%63 W · 43 L | +9.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x49bc…a1e7backed Team Falcons | 62c | 113.06$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -5.9wins | -0.37per pick | 49cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Team Falcons | 56c | 99.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 118 | 47.5%56 W · 62 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cef…dbcbbacked Team Falcons | 60c | 85.8$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.44 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95e9…67b6backed Team Falcons | 61c | 70.61$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.07 | 185 | 50.8%94 W · 91 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Team Falcons | 43c | 67.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 108 | 33.3%36 W · 72 L | -13.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xff77…b6b4backed Team Falcons | 30c | 67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a2…a9bfbacked Team Falcons | 60c | 66.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 194 | 55.7%108 W · 86 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc79f…d270backed Team Liquid | 43c | 65.58$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0633…355abacked Team Falcons | 44c | 63.89$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 116 | 43.1%50 W · 66 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Team Liquid | 50c | 60.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.04 | 190 | 53.2%101 W · 89 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f90…4c92backed Team Falcons | 59c | 59.47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 141 | 36.9%52 W · 89 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc2…f593backed Team Falcons | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 61cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Team Liquid | 43c | 49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59d8…ad87backed Team Liquid | 41c | 48.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.79 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce33…17bbbacked Team Falcons | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa78e…7cbcbacked Team Liquid | 44c | 45.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.11 | 93 | 37.6%35 W · 58 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43ca…6636backed Team Liquid | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.39per pick | 48cpaid | +74.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9f…3988backed Team Falcons | 42c | 38.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 194 | 60.3%117 W · 77 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6987…846bbacked Team Liquid | 68c | 34.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28af…05f5backed Team Falcons | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -5.3wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a1…d1eebacked Team Falcons | 53c | 33.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -4.2wins | -0.33per pick | 48cpaid | -73%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Team Liquid | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 91 | 56%51 W · 40 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd819…4c18backed Team Liquid | 38c | 29.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +187.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x566c…3d03backed Team Liquid | 45c | 23.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +163.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb64…4db9backed Team Falcons | 60c | 23.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 62cpaid | -26%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7a…ad96backed Team Falcons | 61c | 18.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: FLC (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO5) - 1win Essence PlayoffsTeam Liquid won
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 1 WinnerTeam Liquid won
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 2 WinnerTeam Liquid won
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 3 WinnerTeam Liquid won
- Game Handicap: FLC (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5)Team Liquid won
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.