Fifa International · resolved market
Egypt vs. Spain: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8cbb615c0cb4f7864f566664167d257c54ff36d0efff8b1509be40b5285c932
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,019
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,080
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,019 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 24c | 13,402$3,186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,216.25 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…d4bfbacked Over | 80c | 9,999$7,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,999.2 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 39c | 5,183$2,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,169.37 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 56c | 1,781$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 13c | 1,585$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,373.35 | 1,560 | 43.8%684 W · 876 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5a…13f5backed Over | 57c | 1,398$801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.97 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2dc…b624backed Over | 28c | 1,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Under | 13c | 635.67$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.31 | 91 | 24.2%22 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 9c | 555.24$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.63 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2e…a948backed Over | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 128 | 48.4%62 W · 66 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebad…fc88backed Under | 15c | 399$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +566.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 11c | 374.59$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.67 | 2,411 | 53%1,278 W · 1,133 L | +75.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68bf…459fbacked Over | 37c | 267.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 78 | 24.4%19 W · 59 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29b7…48d4backed Over | 47c | 260.66$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.51 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 13c | 249.89$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.3 | 2,380 | 53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L | +76.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd76…b935backed Over | 43c | 242$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.06 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 47c | 229.97$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.28 | 504 | 50.2%253 W · 251 L | +13.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 11c | 218.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.28 | 1,711 | 35.2%603 W · 1,108 L | -68.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 46c | 216.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b14…5301backed Under | 41c | 192.8$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.85 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Over | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e1…f5a9backed Under | 65c | 155.3$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8daf…0f86backed Over | 74c | 140$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.6 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xade7…9d34backed Over | 70c | 99.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.84 | 222 | 58.6%130 W · 92 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Over | 49c | 91.84$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5631…bd3abacked Over | 62c | 84.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.69 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 38c | 84.21$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 308 | 36%111 W · 197 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca7…ce3bbacked Under | 32c | 83.7$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.68 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 28c | 75.44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.65 | 237 | 51.1%121 W · 116 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a47…aa53backed Over | 79c | 71$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.09 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x556a…8bf1backed Under | 15c | 66.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +182.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c2e5backed Over | 47c | 56.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 56 | 60.7%34 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Over | 61c | 49.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 205 | 61%125 W · 80 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a2…1467backed Over | 54c | 44.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -37%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 317 | 47.6%151 W · 166 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6481…b1bfbacked Over | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd290…5f4abacked Under | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c8…0743backed Over | 66c | 30.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccf…fa1abacked Over | 75c | 25.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bba…6596backed Under | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd155…b599backed Over | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 56c | 21.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Under | 69c | 20.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 198 | 62.1%123 W · 75 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Egypt vs. Spain: O/U 1.5this page
- Egypt vs. Spain: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Egypt vs. Spain: O/U 2.5Under won
- Egypt vs. Spain: O/U 3.5Under won
- Egypt vs. Spain: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Egypt (-1.5)Spain won
- Spread: Egypt (-2.5)Spain won
- Spread: Spain (-1.5)Egypt won
- Spread: Spain (-2.5)Egypt won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.