Fifa International · resolved market
Spread: Spain (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8e77b3ef1516aa23442b668cf05768eeaf095d25708d813a167040c44338ca9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Egyptof Spain, Egypt
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,436
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,343
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,436 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4c6c…4f80backed Egypt | 62c | 1,137$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.83 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Egypt | 67c | 476.69$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.57 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x332c…ae23backed Spain | 45c | 400.85$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +6.4wins | +0.14per pick | 35cpaid | +108.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Spain | 28c | 344.88$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.78 | 91 | 24.2%22 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2e…6da4backed Spain | 41c | 248.12$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.73 | 79 | 54.4%43 W · 36 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9073…13b3backed Spain | 44c | 163$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.31 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…022dbacked Spain | 41c | 141.66$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Spain | 26c | 141.39$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.79 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Spain | 27c | 126.11$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Spain | 40c | 76.29$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 246 | 53.3%131 W · 115 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Spain | 40c | 76.29$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 171 | 58.5%100 W · 71 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Spain | 20c | 73.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9c…1700backed Spain | 40c | 46.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf18…af99backed Spain | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 164 | 50%82 W · 82 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Egypt | 55c | 46.38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 2,411 | 53%1,278 W · 1,133 L | +75.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Egypt | 67c | 43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Spain | 33c | 43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x810d…6080backed Spain | 40c | 42.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Spain | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Egypt | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1872…bcabbacked Egypt | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x981b…b8eabacked Egypt | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Egypt | 57c | 34.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 823 | 48.8%402 W · 421 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Egypt | 56c | 34.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 2,380 | 53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L | +76.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…c6ccbacked Egypt | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +121.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Egypt | 60c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 124 | 54.8%68 W · 56 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6da7…762abacked Spain | 40c | 25.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Egypt | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 1,711 | 35.2%603 W · 1,108 L | -68.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b14…5301backed Spain | 52c | 20.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10a0…e54dbacked Egypt | 56c | 17.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Spain (-2.5)this page
- Egypt vs. Spain: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Egypt vs. Spain: O/U 1.5Under won
- Egypt vs. Spain: O/U 2.5Under won
- Egypt vs. Spain: O/U 3.5Under won
- Egypt vs. Spain: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Egypt (-1.5)Spain won
- Spread: Egypt (-2.5)Spain won
- Spread: Spain (-1.5)Egypt won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.