Mls · resolved market
Spread: Vancouver Whitecaps FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8cdbec7bc01fe7ee5804a61bc70f9d5fdaa69cb9ff0daac975d007e9bcffcb7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Jose Earthquakesof Vancouver Whitecaps FC, San Jose Earthquakes
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,642
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,642 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Jose Earthquakes | 66c | 1,970$1,301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.57 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Vancouver Whitecaps FC | 37c | 470$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.9 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea00…c1f1backed Vancouver Whitecaps FC | 37c | 411$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.07 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…4415backed Vancouver Whitecaps FC | 37c | 392.37$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.18 | 110 | 55.5%61 W · 49 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Vancouver Whitecaps FC | 7c | 176.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf7…bcbebacked Vancouver Whitecaps FC | 37c | 140$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…bb62backed Vancouver Whitecaps FC | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Vancouver Whitecaps FC | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Vancouver Whitecaps FC | 37c | 125$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.25 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…2935backed Vancouver Whitecaps FC | 38c | 105.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Vancouver Whitecaps FC | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed San Jose Earthquakes | 63c | 60.73$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.47 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc16f…0f4fbacked Vancouver Whitecaps FC | 37c | 56.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed San Jose Earthquakes | 62c | 49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…ff08backed San Jose Earthquakes | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Vancouver Whitecaps FC | 38c | 48.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked San Jose Earthquakes | 62c | 37.89$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5101…4a4fbacked San Jose Earthquakes | 62c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Vancouver Whitecaps FC | 38c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed San Jose Earthquakes | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed San Jose Earthquakes | 67c | 17.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Vancouver Whitecaps FC (-1.5)this page
- Spread: San Jose Earthquakes (-1.5)Vancouver Whitecaps FC won
- Spread: San Jose Earthquakes (-2.5)Vancouver Whitecaps FC won
- Spread: Vancouver Whitecaps FC (-2.5)San Jose Earthquakes won
- Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 1.5Under won
- Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 2.5Under won
- Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 3.5Under won
- Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.