Mls · resolved market
Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb14d4137540bd2876ad380daa2914de1d26ff89437fa2fd91d75c189467b526f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,919
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,919 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 63c | 1,057$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.49 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 53c | 813.32$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.32 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 47c | 702.45$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.6 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x598b…f296backed Over | 50c | 585.53$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.51 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Over | 37c | 500.66$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.17 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 13c | 321$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.27 | 139 | 48.9%68 W · 71 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Under | 47c | 287.91$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.59 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +5.9wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Under | 36c | 188.1$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.69 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba7e…5f27backed Under | 18c | 158.76$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 22cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 51c | 155$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.59 | 206 | 41.3%85 W · 121 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 16c | 125$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35ac…0c64backed Under | 17c | 119.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.56 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 44c | 96.62$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.9 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 49c | 86.58$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.41 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 47c | 80.91$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.88 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c65…6b11backed Under | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 67c | 53.82$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b9…70aebacked Over | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x639f…6b8dbacked Over | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 49cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 256 | 52.3%134 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x134c…eeefbacked Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c5…0d72backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +128.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 56c | 34.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 73c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 79c | 28.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 19 | 84.2%16 W · 3 L | +4.5wins | +0.23per pick | 61cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 1.5this page
- Spread: San Jose Earthquakes (-1.5)Vancouver Whitecaps FC won
- Spread: San Jose Earthquakes (-2.5)Vancouver Whitecaps FC won
- Spread: Vancouver Whitecaps FC (-1.5)San Jose Earthquakes won
- Spread: Vancouver Whitecaps FC (-2.5)San Jose Earthquakes won
- Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 2.5Under won
- Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 3.5Under won
- Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.